How an Aussie doctor's Nostradamus moment predicted Australia would suffer an ‘uncontainable Covid outbreak’ – and why vaccinating during the ‘lull’ was our only hope

Dr John Gerrard predicted Australia would suffer an outbreak like the one currently savaging Sydney

A top Australian doctor predicted Covid-19 would spiral out of control Down Under back in May, and said vaccinating the population when there were barely any cases was our only hope of getting out of the pandemic unscathed.

Doctor John Gerrard is director of infectious diseases at the Gold Coast University Hospital and treated Queensland's first Covid patient at the very start of the health crisis in early 2020.

He knew the first iteration of the virus was extremely contagious, and that was before the highly-infectious Indian Delta strain mutated its way into existence.

New South Wales is now battling its worst outbreak since the pandemic began with a whopping 3600 new cases in the last two months, and the deadly strain has since spread to Victoria and Queensland.

Just four months ago, when the nation barely had any Covid-19 cases, ABC program Four Corners filmed Dr Gerrard predicting that the illness would soon cause another outbreak, similar to that seen in Melbourne last year.

 People being tested for Covid-19 in Brisbane . The latest outbreak is sweeping through Sydney, Queensland and Melbourne

'I have no doubt that sometime in the next 12 months, this hospital will be used for the purpose for which it's designed,' he said. 

'Once we get above a certain critical number, the virus will spread and we won't be able to contain it.

'But we are in this lucky position, this fortunate position at the moment that we have this lull, and this gives us an opportunity to vaccinate the vulnerable and to protect them for when the virus arrives.'

He said the period where there were no local cases was an 'extraordinary gift' and implored government officials not to waste the opportunity - a warning that was largely ignored.

Australia's vaccine rollout has been hampered by conflicting health advice about the AstraZeneca shot and a failure to procure enough Pfizer in the early stages of the rollout. 

New South Wales recorded another 207 cases of Covid-19 on Monday as Sydney continues to grapple with an outbreak of the highly-contagious Delta variant

Residents queue up for their dose of the Covid-19 coronavirus vaccine at the Homebush vaccination centre in Sydney on August 2 with doctors saying jabs are the only way out of lockdown

State and federal politicians couldn't agree on whether to give AstraZeneca to people under 60 for fear of an ultra-rare blood clotting disorder associated with the jab, but it was then decided to offer it everyone over the age of 18.

While the government tried to ensure elderly and vulnerable were first in line, it hamstrung the rollout further by stopping younger demographics from getting the jab.

An increasing number of people under 40 are reported in daily case numbers in NSW, with many critically ill in hospital, but younger Australians are still unable to book in for Pfizer and are forced to get a letter from their doctor to get AstraZeneca.

Of the 207 new infections recorded in NSW on Monday Premier Gladys Berejiklian said at least 50 were out in the community while infectious.  

An ambulance officer and staff are seen at the entrance of the Hardi Aged Care Nursing Home Facility at Summer Hill on August 2 where there have now been 13 cases

There are now 232 patients suffering from Covid-19 in NSW hospitals - including 54 in intensive care and 25 who require ventilation.

The NSW premier said the priority was vaccinating the state's 'mobile' residents aged between 20 and 40 - particularly in the eight local government areas in Sydney's west and south-west where the virus is spreading the most rapidly. 

She said on Monday health officials would have to get 9.2 million jabs in arms across the state to reach a vaccination target of 70 per cent, which she has repeatedly said would trigger an easing of lockdown restrictions.

'Vaccines are working extremely effectively,' she said. 'We still don't know of anybody in intensive care in who has received both doses of the vaccine.

'We are at 3.9 million jabs already. Five million jabs means we're halfway to the 80 per cent target and 9.2 million jabs gets us to 70 per cent.'

NSW's vaccination rate sits at about 15 per cent for those who have received both jabs and 32 per cent have received only one dose.