British prime minister David Cameron speaks with German chancellor Angela Merkel during a round table meeting at a Brussels EU summit. Photograph: Yves Logghe/AP
Angela Merkel and François Hollande have rejected David Cameron's invitation. He wanted them to take part in a government survey assessing the impact of European Union laws and regulations on the UK and other member states. The prime minister shouldn't be surprised by the snub – he had already been warned, notably by the Polish foreign minister speaking in Oxford last year, that there would be no encouragement from Europe for those in London who want Britain left isolated on the fringes of the EU.
Lest the British government be encouraged to play on any perceived differences between Berlin and Paris, the two most powerful EU heads of government co-ordinated their response very closely. The survey itself – an initiative of the Foreign Office launched in 2012 – is a lengthy and bland questionnaire designed to identify areas of policy where there might be public support for Britain pulling out of existing EU commitments.
The survey is one part of a carefully orchestrated campaign designed to lead up to a possible referendum on EU membership, to be held towards the end of 2017. This, of course, will be well after the next general election and is designed to follow on what London expects will be a major new EU constitutional treaty to give the Euro area sweeping new powers.
The prime minister's strategy therefore depends on him successfully clearing three critical hurdles. First: survive as leader of the Conservative party up to the general election. Second: win the next UK election with a clear overall Tory majority. Third: trade demands for the UK to be given a special semi-detached status in the EU in return for not blocking a new treaty for euro-area economic and political union.
There are obvious question marks over all three stages. Given the current frustration in the Conservative party over the government's unpopularity and the alienation of many Tory MPs from Cameron's leadership, a bid to oust the prime minister cannot be excluded. Indeed if next month's local government election results are as bad as some in the party fear and if the threat from Ukip looms ever larger, a leadership coup might even come later this year.
A new Conservative leader who tries to pull the party further to the Eurosceptic right would risk undermining the coalition with the Liberal Democrats. A government crisis would almost certainly be precipitated by any move to hold an EU membership referendum this side of the next general election, as some on the Tory right are already demanding.
Although a general election is two years away, there is little comfort in the opinion poll evidence for the present coalition, which is way behind Labour and is also losing votes to Ukip. But if the re-election of a Tory/Lib Dem coalition is questionable, the prospects for a majority Tory-only government seem remote. The conclusion being drawn in most European Union capitals is that there is only a small and diminishing prospect that David Cameron will still be in Downing Street after 2015 and in a position to force a fundamental rewrite of the terms of UK membership of the EU.
However, just to be on the safe side, there is much talk in Brussels and other capitals about delaying a new treaty to authorise a full European economic, monetary and banking union. For different reasons the French and German governments believe they can still nail down the much-needed Euro-area banking union without having to trigger a new treaty and thereby new risk referendums in other EU countries. This would deprive a Tory government of a powerful bargaining chip in seeking semi-detached status.
Given the deepening economic recession in the EU and the mounting demands for a radical change in policy to prioritise growth and jobs, it is far from certain how long a new EU treaty can be delayed. If a new German coalition government including the Social Democrats emerges from the German general election in September, it may demand significant further economic and political integration in return for underwriting a serious recovery strategy.