US divorce rates have hit a 50-year LOW because people are more 'selective' about their spouses and couples who marry older are staying together longer

Divorce rates in the U.S. have hit a 50-year low and marriage rates are at their lowest level on record, according to new data.

Census data analyzed by the Institute for Family Studies on Tuesday shows that out of every 1,000 marriages in 2019, only 14.9 ended in divorce, the lowest level since 1969.

It continues a long-term decline in divorce rates from a peak in 1980 - and initial data from 2020 suggests that the trend is likely to continue this year, despite the pandemic and lockdowns that many predicted would push couples to split.

'I think what we're seeing is marriage is becoming more selective,' said W. Bradford Wilcox, a senior fellow at IFS and a professor of sociology at the University of Virginia, in an interview with DailyMail.com. 

'They are more educated, more affluent and more religious than the general population at large, and they are also older than people who got were 30 or 40 years ago. All those traits reduce the risk of divorce,' he added. 

Divorce rates in the U.S. have hit a 50-year low, declining to 1969 levels

At the same time, people are getting married at a lower rate now than they ever have before

The new analysis by IFS Research Director Wendy Wang shows that the median length of marriages has increased by nearly a year in the past decade, to 19.8 years.

At the same time, people are getting married at a lower rate now than they ever have before.

'For every 1,000 unmarried adults in 2019, only 33 got married. This number was 35 a decade ago in 2010 and 86 in 1970,' Wang wrote.

Though the data is very preliminary, there are signs that the divorce rate will continue to drop this year, despite the economic and emotional stresses of the pandemic. 

'The drop in the divorce rate is likely to continue in 2020, despite the pandemic,' Wang wrote. 'According to data from the American Family Survey, a majority of married Americans (58%) say that the pandemic has made them appreciate their spouse more and half agree that their commitment to marriage has deepened.'

Wilcox agreed, sharing data with DailyMail.com showing that divorce rates had declined sharply this year in Florida, Rhode Island, Oregon and Missouri, while rising somewhat in Arizona.

'In most of the states we've looked at, divorce is down and down markedly' this year, he said. 

Divorce rates declined sharply this year in Florida, Rhode Island, Oregon and Missouri, while rising somewhat in Arizona, new data shows

There are signs that the divorce rate will continue to drop this year, despite the economic and emotional stresses of the pandemic (stock image)

Wedding and divorce data is reported at different times by different states, making it too early to fully assess the national impact of the pandemic on marriages.

Wendy Diane Manning, co-director of the National Center for Family & Marriage Research at Bowling Green State University, points out that many courts were closed in the early days of the pandemic, making it difficult to obtain a divorce or get married.

Manning, who is not connected with the IFS study, said that the impact of lockdowns was likely to make strong relationships stronger, and push weaker relationships toward a split. 

'I think it's probably worked a little bit both ways, and they offset each other,' she told DailyMail.com.

She concurred that trend toward couples being more selective about getting married was the main driver of the long-term decline in divorce rates.

'The people who are entering marriage are people who traditionally have lower divorce rates,' she said, citing rising levels of education, wealth and higher ages among those getting married.

'Marriage is held in high regard -- and sometimes held in such high regard that people want to wait until everything is so in place before they do it,' said Manning. 'We hold it in such high regard that we aren't willing to enter it unless everything is right.'

The divorce rate for women is seen from 1900 to 2018 in the chart above

Percentage of ever-married women currently separated or divorced, by race 1940-2018

Percentage of ever-married women currently separated or divorced, by educational attainment, from 1940-2018

Researchers point out that there are increasing class divisions between those who marry and those who don't, leaving those who are less wealthy and educated less likely to reap the social and legal benefits of marriage.

'College-educated and economically better off Americans are more likely to marry and stay married, but working-class and poor Americans face more family instability and higher levels of singleness,' Wang wrote.

'For Americans in the top third income bracket, 64% are in an intact marriage, meaning they have only married once and are still in their first marriage. In contrast, only 24% of Americans in the lower-third income bracket are in an intact marriage, according to my analysis of the 2018 Census data,' she added.

'This sobering news about marriage puts a damper on our hope for the future of American families,' Wang wrote. 'With the rates of both divorce and marriage dropping in America, we expect to see the marriage divide deepen and poor and working-class Americans increasingly disconnected from the institution of marriage.' 

Wilcox told DailyMail.com: 'I would predict about a third of young adults today will never marry.' 

'The downside to that is the data are pretty clear, even 20-somethings who get married are more likely to be happy,' he added. 'Marriage delivers a lot more emotional satisfaction and stability than a lot of young adults realize.'

Wilcox predicted that divorces would decline sharply in 2020, before rising next year as people who were unable to get a divorce during the pandemic seek a split.

Ultimately, he believes the economic shock of the pandemic will drive divorce rates even lower over the next decade or so.

'That's what we saw in the last Great Recession,' he said. 'Since the Great Recession, people have become more cautious about family life in general, and divorce specifically.'