Nadine Dorries warns of NHS beds crisis as number of coronavirus patients admitted to English hospitals doubles in two weeks... but two thirds of trusts take in no more than ONE Covid patient per day

The number of Covid patients admitted to English hospitals has more than doubled in the past two weeks – but it’s still nowhere near as bad as it was in the spring.

Latest figures show 524 coronavirus cases were so severe they needed to be treated on NHS wards on Tuesday. Health minister Nadine Dorries yesterday said admissions – mostly in the North – might be at a ‘critical stage’ in around ten days. 

‘Those who now claim that further measures are not needed, will in about ten days from now, when hospital admissions are at a critical stage argue that we didn’t do enough,’ she said. 

Professor Helen Stokes-Lampard, chairman of the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges, said the ‘indications are not looking good’ and that the nation was at a ‘tipping point’. 

But the NHS is far from overrun and the current spike is highly localised. Hospitals in the North West and North East have seen admissions surge by up to 60 per cent in the last week, whereas in huge swathes of the South, hospitals are still quiet. 

Covid-19 hospital admissions in England have doubled in the past fortnight, with health minister Nadine Dorries yesterday warning they might be at a ‘critical stage’ in around ten days

Out of the 205 NHS trusts in England, 153 admitted no more than one Covid patient per day in the last week of September. 

On April 1, at the height of the pandemic, 3,099 Covid patients were admitted to hospitals in England – six times as many as on Tuesday. 

There are currently 2,944 Covid patients in hospital in England, compared to 17,000 at the peak. Putting those figures in perspective, there are roughly 145,000 NHS beds. 

Specialists often point out that it is not occupancy of these general beds that are the  numbers to watch – the crucial beds are those in critical care. But, again, these are at nowhere near capacity. 

There are currently 376 mechanical ventilators in use for Covid patients in England. 

At the peak 2,881 of these beds were in use. Although in some hospitals that meant every critical care bed was taken up – across most of the country there was room to spare. 

There are normally about 4,000 adult critical care beds across England, but the NHS Nightingale hospitals, which are still on standby, double that capacity to about 8,000. 

NHS bosses point out, however, that the first wave hit Britain in the spring, by which time the normal winter rush was well past its worst. 

If the second wave peaks at the same time as the annual winter crisis, even the surge capacity could be challenged. 

In most winters, critical care capacity across England reaches close to 100 per cent occupancy. 

If thousands of new Covid patients are added to that, the NHS will struggle. The difference, however, is that this time hospitals are better prepared. 

NHS Nightingale hospitals, including one at the ExCel Centre in East London, are on standby ready to double the NHS capacity, should Covid cases continue to rise

The NHS coped remarkably well in April and May despite scrambling to cope with thousands of patients struck by a virus nobody knew how to treat. 

Since then doctors have learned much more about it. Data from ICNARC, the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, showed the risk of an intensive care patient with Covid dying dropped by at least a fifth between March and June. 

And that was before effective new drugs such as dexamethasone were shown to reduce deaths even further. In March, before the peak of the crisis, 44 in every 100 intensive care patients died within 28 days. 

During the peak, between 29 March and 14 April, this dropped to 41 deaths per 100. And by the time admissions were dropping again, between mid-April and the start of July, deaths had dropped to 34 per 100. 

That drop is highly significant. 

It means for every 100 who were sick enough to be admitted to intensive care in May, an additional ten lives were saved than if they had been admitted in March. 

Admissions this winter can be expected to have even better odds of survival. 

That is not to say experts should not be worried. 

Dr Yvonne Doyle, medical director for Public Health England, said last night: ‘We are seeing a definite and sustained increase in cases and admissions to hospital. ‘The trend is clear, and it is very concerning.’