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Endless Covid first tide: how Indonesia didn't control coronavirus

His suggestion was the latest in a series of unorthodox treatments put forward from the president cabinet over the previous six months, ranging from prayer to rice wrapped in banana-leaf to chamomile necklaces.

The treatments reflect the unscientific approach to fighting the coronavirus from the planet's fourth-most populous nation, in which the speed of testing is among the world's lowest, contact tracing is minimum, and authorities have resisted lockdowns even as illnesses spiked. Including people who perished with acute COVID-19 symptoms but were not tested, the death toll is three times higher. It currently has the fastest disease distributed in East Asia, with 17% of people tested turning out positive, rising near 25 percent outside the capital, Jakarta. Statistics above 5 percent imply an outbreak is not under control, according to the World Health Organization.

"This virus has already spread around Indonesia. What we are doing is basically herd immunity," explained Prijo Sidipratomo, dean of the Faculty of Medicine at the National Veterans Development University at Jakarta. "Thus, we should just dig a lot, many graves." Herd immunity describes a scenario where a huge proportion of the population contracts the virus and then widespread immunity stops the disease from spreading. He said the amount of infections was"a warning for Indonesia to continuously enhance its managing effort," and that positive instances per capita in Indonesia were less compared to many countries. President Joko Widodo's office did not respond to questions delivered by Reuters.



To make sure, Indonesia's supported 144,945 infections from a population of 270 million are far much less than the countless reported in the United States, Brazil and India, and below the neighbouring Philippines, that includes less than half Indonesia's inhabitants. But the true scale of Indonesia's outbreak may nevertheless be hidden: India and the Philippines are analyzing four times more per capita, although the USA is testing 30 times more.

Data from Our Planet in Data, a nonprofit research project based in the University of Oxford, reveal Indonesia ranked 83rd from 86 countries surveyed for overall evaluations per capita.

"Our concern is that we've not reached the peak yet, that the peak may come about October and may not complete this year," said Iwan Ariawan, an epidemiologist from the University of Indonesia. "Right now we can not say it is in check."

Initially of this outbreak, Indonesia's government was slow to respond and reluctant to reveal what it knew to the public, based on over 20 government officials, test lab supervisors and public health experts who spoke to Reuters.

Despite surging instances in neighbouring nations and using 3,000 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test kits - the WHO-approved evaluation for detecting the coronavirus - ready by early February, the government said fewer than 160 evaluations were ran by March 2.

On March 13, Widodo said the government was withholding information so as to not"stir anxiety." Throughout the first two weeks of March, the authorities concealed at least half of their daily infections that it was aware of, two individuals using the data told Reuters. The two people said they were later restricted from viewing the raw information.

A telephone in March by Widodo for a massive growth of rapid diagnostic testing might have jeopardized the nation's testing regime, according to Alvin turn, a commissioner at the office of the Indonesian Ombudsman, an official government watchdog.

Scientific studies have shown rapid tests, which examine blood samples for antibodies, were found to be much less precise than the PCR method, which assesses swabs in the throat or nose for hereditary material. Widodo's drive to utilize a reliable test diverted resources away from PCR tests, three lab managers told Reuters.

Lie told Reuters the importers of the accelerated evaluations, including big state-owned businesses and private companies, made"huge profits" by charging consumers around 1 million rupiah ($68), even though each evaluation costs only 50,000 rupiah ($3.50).

From mid-April, provincial governments said rapid testing from the states in West Java, Bali and Yogyakarta produced hundreds of false negatives and false positives.

But the tests continued to be widely used and it took until July for imports of quick tests to be stopped and for the government to introduce a price cap of 150,000 rupiah ($10). In July, Indonesia also formally advised provincial governments and others not to utilize accelerated testing for diagnostic purposes in their own updated guidelines for COVID-19 prevention and management.

But Lie said there's a massive stockpile and quick tests continue to be broadly deployed, such as for screening office employees and travelers to allow them to move freely for 14 days.

"That is similar to saying for the subsequent 14 days after the quick test they are free of the virus. That's pure nonsense. All it suggests, and not so accurately, is they were liberated from the virus once the sample was shot," said .

Adisasmito declined to comment on whether the president's call for quick testing sabotaged its overall testing attempts. He did acknowledge the inaccuracies of testing but said it was still useful in some situations where the capability to use PCR tests is limited, including screening travellers. He did not directly answer questions about companies making massive profits from evaluations.

The central government does not disclose the degree of national rapid testing. But data in West Java, Indonesia's largest province with 50 million people, shows that it has conducted 50 percent faster tests than PCR evaluations.

Government officials say 269 labs with PCR machines are currently operating. However, the labs are increasingly unable to meet need as infections grow. The amount of suspected cases - people with COVID-19 symptoms who have yet to be tested - has doubled to 79,000 from the last month, according to government information.

Component of the thing is that lab capacity is far from being fully utilised, based on four caregivers. One senior health ministry official, Achmad Yurianto, told Reuters Indonesia was able to test 30,000 individuals every day, over double the daily average of 12,650 individuals tested over the past month.

Five laboratory managers and advisers contacted by Reuters said the failure to use the nation's testing capability was a result of government mismanagement that had led to shortages of employees and reagents, substances required for the evaluations.

Adisasmito did not respond to queries regarding the government's management of testing. Last week, explaining the shortfall in analyzing, Yurianto said labs did not have sufficient time to check all of specimens, with a few labs working restricted days and hours.

Widespread PCR testing and fast results are vital for tracing the contacts of those infected from the coronavirus.

Reuters talked to 12 health workers across Indonesia who described the country's contact tracing effort as bungled and ineffective.

Rahmat Januar Nor, a health officer in the delta city of Banjarmasin in Indonesian Borneo, said advice about new coronavirus cases often came in to his office in varying conditions of disorder, with incomplete names, inactive phone numbers or outdated addresses for patients and their connections, problems seen by health care workers across the country.

"We requested the village leaders for aid," Nor told Reuters. "But in the end we didn't find them (the contacts) most of the time."

When they did reach contacts, most refused to be analyzed, fearful they would lose their jobs or be ostracised in the community, Nor and other caregivers said.

Unpublished data from the government COVID-19 task force, reviewed by Reuters, reveals only 53.7% of people identified as confirmed or suspected carriers of the disease were exposed to contact tracing by June 6.

Adisasmito didn't provide more recent arrangement tracing data but acknowledged it"remains low" and said the government aimed to track 30 individuals per positive case. That is still low in comparison to other Asian nations. South Korea said in May it traced and tested almost 8,000 individuals after a man with the virus visited a nightclub.

Based on five people knowledgeable about the matter, the WHO advised Indonesian authorities that contact tracing must involve 20 or more people tracked per suspected and confirmed case. But Indonesia is averaging about two tracked contacts per case, based on provincial officials and information examined by Reuters.

In Jakarta, where the epidemic first took hold in the country, the data shows fewer than two connections traced, on average, for each supported and suspected case in July.

In East Java, yet another hotspot, tracing rates are 2.8 contacts each each supported and suspected patient, according to investigators from Airlangga University.

A WHO spokesperson stated Indonesia began following its contact tracing recommendations from mid-July.

Indonesia's decision to reject complete lockdowns was driven by economic and security concerns, stated government advisers.

Instead, it has urged Indonesians to put on masks, wash their hands and practise social distancing while working, travelling and socialising.

"The debate was that we couldn't (afford it)," Soewarta Kosen, a health economist who consulted with the authorities on its coronavirus response, told Reuters. "We were afraid that there would be social unrest."

Widodo's focus on the market is a favorite, polling shows. The Indonesian economy plummeted just 5.3% in the second quarter of 2020, much less than several other regional economies. But epidemiologists say they fear the decision will probably cost Indonesia more in the long term, particularly as its health program is badly equipped to cope in case positive instances continue to surge.

Dr Bambang Pujo, an avid runner and anaesthetist in the primary COVID-19 referral hospital at Indonesia's second-largest city of Surabaya, said mortality rates in his ward are between 50 percent and 80% and there are not enough beds.

"Ten hours inside a hazmat suit is like running a marathon double," he said, describing the long hours that he spends in protective equipment within the intensive care unit. "Imagine how we feel. It's like playing God. We hope that we do not make errors and, even if we do, we are forgiven." That compares to 6.9 per 100,000 people in India, according to an April report from Princeton University. Adisasmito stated the health care system has been constantly improved.

"We must understand that our infrastructure isn't ready for a pandemic like this," said Pujo. "Other nations know of waves. We're constantly on the first wave."

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