Here's a joke doing the rounds in Belarus, where protesters over President Alexander Lukashenko's reported landslide victory in the Aug. 9 election threaten to finish his 26-year reign. Policemen arrest a man in Minsk, the capital. "But I hunted for Lukashenko," he acknowledges. "Do not lie" the police retort,"nobody voted for him!" Lukashenko's potential death is no laughing matter for the Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The protests have attracted Belarus unusually international attention. The population of 10 million and gross domestic product of less than $60 billion are far too small to get much global effect. A couple international investors maintain Belarusian debt including Fidelity and Ashmore, according to Refinitiv data. But the government has only $7 billion of bonds in global circulation.
The former Soviet state is of much greater significance to its main economic ally: Russia. To keep it shut, Russia sells the country oil in below-market rates.
Putin has backed Lukashenko, however, the relationship was testy, as the Belarus leader rejected Moscow's calls for greater political and economic ties, but Russia still buys about 40 percent of Belarus exports. Russia was scaling back its subsidies.
Belarus is important to Putin, but probably not important enough to risk a direct military intervention in the style of the 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. The situations are quite different. Flexing Moscow's muscles in Belarus could bring stronger local resistance than six decades back, and Russians, that are suffering the financial pain of reduced petroleum prices and Covid-19, would likely be less enthusiastic about such an adventure.
Additionally, Belarus is not necessarily pivoting towards Europe as Ukraine was, particularly as the Western forces have also lost interest in eastward growth. There's not much desire for helping Belarus decrease its economic dependence on Russia. Putin has lots of leverage to help the nation find a new boss whom he sees acceptable.
The protests have attracted Belarus unusually international attention. The population of 10 million and gross domestic product of less than $60 billion are far too small to get much global effect. A couple international investors maintain Belarusian debt including Fidelity and Ashmore, according to Refinitiv data. But the government has only $7 billion of bonds in global circulation.
The former Soviet state is of much greater significance to its main economic ally: Russia. To keep it shut, Russia sells the country oil in below-market rates.
Putin has backed Lukashenko, however, the relationship was testy, as the Belarus leader rejected Moscow's calls for greater political and economic ties, but Russia still buys about 40 percent of Belarus exports. Russia was scaling back its subsidies.
Belarus is important to Putin, but probably not important enough to risk a direct military intervention in the style of the 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. The situations are quite different. Flexing Moscow's muscles in Belarus could bring stronger local resistance than six decades back, and Russians, that are suffering the financial pain of reduced petroleum prices and Covid-19, would likely be less enthusiastic about such an adventure.
Additionally, Belarus is not necessarily pivoting towards Europe as Ukraine was, particularly as the Western forces have also lost interest in eastward growth. There's not much desire for helping Belarus decrease its economic dependence on Russia. Putin has lots of leverage to help the nation find a new boss whom he sees acceptable.