Vaccinating millions of children under 15 would halve the spread of Delta and cut lockdown risk, new modelling shows – as it reveals the exact dates Australia will reach 70 and 80 per cent jab targets

Giving millions of children under the age of 15 a Covid-19 jab would halve the spread of the virus and make lockdowns one-third less likely, according to new modelling.

University of Melbourne forecasting predicts 80 per cent of the population aged over 12 could be fully vaccinated by November 29 if children were included in the targets, based on how quickly Australia is now rolling out the jab.

Even without innoculating kids, researchers predict 70 per cent of Australia's eligible population could be vaccinated by November 3, and 80 per cent by November 21. 

Professor Tony Blakely, the epidemiologist behind the data analysis, told The Australian all school children could be fully vaccinated by Christmas.

'I think the adult vaccination is going extremely well,' Dr Blakely said. 'We might even be able to get a single shot into all primary school kids by as well.'

Giving millions of children under the age of 15 a vaccination jab would likely halve the long-term spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19, recent modelling has revealed (stock image)

Pictured: Locked-down Sydneysiders in Homebush in the city's west.  University of Melbourne forecasting predicts 80 per cent of the population aged over 12 could be fully vaccinated by November 29

Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely believes it is achievable to have everyone aged over 12 vaccinated by the end of the year in Australia

The modelling estimates that Australia's infection rate after interstate borders reopened would be halved by vaccinating children above the age of five.

The risk of lockdowns would be cut by a third by including Australians aged 12 and above in the vaccination program. 

New Zealand said on Friday it would start vaccinating children aged between 12 and 16.  

Dr Blakely's modelling comes after Prime Minister Scott Morrison suggested vaccination targets would not be changed to include under-16s.

'The recommendation from the Doherty Institute did not ­include and actually specifically did not include 12 to 15s and did not consider it necessary (that they) be included in those overall vaccination rates to trigger when you can move to the next phases,' Mr Morrison said.

'So when we continue to report figures, it'll be based on the population 16 and above.' 

He also warned skittish premiers that abandoning vaccine coverage targets tied to reopening would break a deal with Australians. 

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has repeatedly stated in recent weeks mass vaccination numbers are key for her state to see lower Covid case numbers

Mr Morrison on Friday urged his state and territory counterparts to stick with an agreement to lift restrictions when 70 and 80 per cent of people are fully immunised.

He said it was about rewarding people who had made sacrifices, adhered to lockdowns and been vaccinated.

There were more than 600,000 doses administered in the past two days as the behind-schedule rollout gains momentum.

More than half the population over 16 has received one dose but fewer than three in 10 people are fully vaccinated.   

Prime Minister Scott Morrison also has been passionate about vaccination numbers needing to rise across Australia 

AUSTRALIAN VACCINATION NUMBERS: 

* There have been 16,504,574 doses administered in the national COVID-19 vaccination rollout up to Thursday, including 303,304 in the previous 24 hours.

* Of the total, 9,666,038 have been administered by the Commonwealth (an increase of +189,293 in the previous 24 hours).

* 8,972,838 have been issued in primary care (+179,189) and 693,200 in aged and disability facilities (+10,104).

* 6,838,536 have been administered by the states and territories, including 114,011 in the previous 24 hours.

NSW recorded 644 new Covid-19 cases on Friday, with 12 LGA's across Greater Sydney to start a curfew from Monday each night from 9pm-5am.

Victoria had 55 cases - and both states are bracing themselves for even higher numbers this weekend.

State governments are ­increasingly concerned about the recent spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19 among younger people.

One-third of cases in NSW are being found those aged under 19 and a quarter of active cases in Victoria involve children aged under nine. 

Earlier this week, Dr Kerry Chant, NSW's chief health officer, left many parents in a state of panic after suggesting schools and childcare centres should be avoided - unless there was no other alternative.

She pointed to concerns over the quick-fire spread of the virus in younger age groups.

Health experts later stated it was 'highly unlikely' school age children or toddlers would develop Covid from close contacts at learning facilities and the risk - even without vaccinations - was minimal.

In Australia, 11.5 per cent of teenagers between the ages of 16 and 19 have received a first dose of vaccine, with 3.9 per cent fully vaccinated.

Vax mandate for NSW childcare workers 

Childcare staff in parts of Sydney will have to be vaccinated to go to work, under a new rule to address rising fears of transmission in daycare centres.

Thirty childcare centres are currently considered exposure sites across Sydney, mostly in the west and southwest, though there has been limited transmission so far.

Some 139 services have notified the Department of Education of positive COVID-19 cases since the current outbreak started in June, a spokesperson said.

On Friday, 115 childcare services were temporarily closed in NSW due to a 'health emergency', according to the childcare authority ACECQA.

The vaccine mandate will apply from August 30 for childcare workers who live or work in the 12 hotspot local council areas. They'll need to have received at least one dose.

Parents across the state are now being urged to keep their children home if they can.

'Unless you absolutely have to, please do not send your child to childcare or early childhood,' Premier Gladys Berejiklian said on Friday.

'We know this is a big imposition for many families but...we're seeing too much transmission from workers to families and we need that to stop.'

Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said earlier this week that parents who are working from home should keep their children at home.

Schools are seeing between one and three per cent of students attend in person. The government wants to see similar figures for childcare.

One of the affected centres is Glebe Montessori in inner Sydney, where a two-year-old tested positive for the virus last week.

A parent told AAP he and his wife were informed their toddler had tested positive and the centre was closed in a late-night email.

It was only three or four days later that he heard from NSW Health, who told him his child was considered a close contact. The family was already isolating.

The experience has been 'terrifying', said the man, who did not wish to be named. He spent the first day of isolation preparing documents outlining how to take care of his child should his wife and him succumb to the virus.

The couple had planned to withdraw their child from childcare once NSW hit 250 cases a day, but did not end up doing so because they could not care for their child and work at the same time.

'There was a lot of anguish in that, should we have done that?' he said.

He has now withdrawn his child, and quit his job to be able to care for them.

He wishes the government had done more to get educators vaccinated, and is also hoping for priority vaccination for kids, he said.

A childcare worker at a centre in Auburn in western Sydney told AAP it was 'so scary' to still be open, but the company had to keep paying its rent.

She worries the virus could be introduced by a cleaner or a child's parents, some of whom are health care workers.

The children play together and sleep together, so she fears the virus could easily spread between them.

Though attendance numbers have dropped by around 70 per cent, some parents are still sending their kids to the centre to look after them while they work from home, which is 'not fair' for other families, she said.

'Some parents say, 'if my little child stay home, I cannot work because they will be sitting in front of the TV for the whole day',' she said.

'Parents can stop the virus going around, they can keep their child at home.'

Children aged under 10 have made up around 13 per cent of cases in NSW in the past three weeks.

Some 517 have tested positive in the past week alone, including 80 in the 24 hours to 8pm on Thursday.

- Australian Associated Press

- Australian Associated Press- Australian Associated Press