Colleges and sixth forms need £570m boost next year to cope with 200,000 more pupils after 'abnormally' high GCSE results due to exams being axed

The unprecedented rise in top GCSE grades will see sixth form colleges overwhelmed this autumn, a study says.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said there will be a 'further jump' in A-level participation this year, following a three percentage point leap in 2020.

It is due to a record 29 per cent of GCSE entries scoring at least a 7 - the equivalent of the old A - in 2021, up from 26 per cent in 2020 and 21 per cent in 2019.

The inflation was caused by teachers deciding grades after exams were cancelled for two years in a row during the pandemic.

It means more pupils have made the grades needed to enter sixth form - as many schools and colleges have minimum requirements.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said there will be a 'further jump' in A-level participation this year, following a three percentage point leap in 2020 (file photo)

Imran Tahir, co-author of the report, said sixth forms will need an extra £570 million by 2022 on top of their current allocation to cater for the extra students.

He said: 'These institutions now face a plethora of additional challenges created by fast rises in student numbers and the need to help pupils catch up on lost learning.'

The study, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, said a 'historic' high of 85 per cent of 16 and 17-year-olds were in full-time education in 2020 - up from 84 per cent in 2019.

In addition, an 'unprecedented' 68 per cent of this age group were studying for an A level or equivalent qualification - as opposed to GCSE resits - up from 65 per cent in 2019.

The rise in student numbers was due to the 'abnormally high GCSE results and reduced opportunities outside of education during the pandemic', the IFS said.

It added: 'Given GCSE results this year, there is likely to be a further jump in participation next year.

'Extra students will put pressure on sixth-form and college finances, which are already strained as a result of extra costs during the pandemic and falls in spending per student over the past decade.

'In addition, colleges and sixth forms also face pressures and challenges as a result of lost learning during the pandemic.

'Whilst GCSE results have been higher than in previous years, pupils of all ages have missed out on significant amounts of face-to-face schooling over the course of the pandemic.

The rise in student numbers was due to the 'abnormally high GCSE results and reduced opportunities outside of education during the pandemic', the IFS said. Pictured: Education Secretary Gavin Williamson

'They are therefore likely to be further behind in their educational progress as compared with previous cohorts.'

Meanwhile, due to social distancing constraints and the economic uncertainty created by the pandemic, only three per cent of 16- and 17-year-olds took apprenticeships in 2020 - the lowest since at least the 1980s.

Over much of the last decade, the share taking an apprenticeship or other work-based learning was between five and six per cent.

The IFS warned there has already been a fall in per-pupil funding of 25 per cent in school sixth forms and 11 per cent in colleges over the past decade in real terms.

The government allocated an extra £400 million to colleges and sixth forms in the 2020-21 financial year, but the IFS says the extra pupils will negate this.

The paper says: 'We calculate that an extra £570 million will be required in the 2022-23 academic year just to keep funding per student at the level it was in 2020-21.'

A Department for Education spokesman said: 'Further education is playing a vital role in delivering the skills young people need to get ahead. 

'So we can meet the needs of all 16- to 19-year-olds we've announced an extra £291million for 2021 to 2022, in addition to the £400million increase in 2020 to 2021.

'This commitment has contributed to the current record high proportion of 16 to 18 year olds who are participating in education or apprenticeships since consistent records began. 

'Funding for future years beyond 2021 to 2022, including anticipated increases in the 16 to 19 population will be considered as part of the upcoming Spending Review.

'To help employers to create more apprenticeship opportunities, we're also offering businesses £3,000 for each new apprentice they take on until the end of September.'