Will he ever stop? The excuse Dan Andrews will use for keeping millions in lockdown even as new modelling shows reopening Australia at PM's vaccine benchmarks will NOT cause more Covid deaths - regardless of case numbers
Long-suffering Victorians trapped in their sixth gruelling coronavirus lockdown were warned by Daniel Andrews that the harsh stay-at-home measures would remain in place if residents continue to 'break the rules'.
His threat comes as revised Covid modelling being used to plan Australia's move out of the pandemic shows easing lockdown as part of the nationwide reopening plan with high case numbers will 'not lead to more deaths' once vaccination rates hit 70 and 80 per cent.
But with the number of double-jabbed nowhere near that level yet, the Victorian premier scolded 'selfish' residents for visiting family, as well as young people he accused of putting off getting a Covid swab even after experiencing symptoms.
He said in some cases people who later tested positive had been infectious in the community for over a week, spreading the disease to their loved ones.
'The longer people break the rules, the longer these rules will be on,' Mr Andrews warned.
Victorians trapped in their sixth gruelling coronavirus lockdown were warned by Daniel Andrews (pictured on Thursday) that the harsh stay-at-home measures would remain in place if residents continue to 'break the rules'
The Victorian leader claimed there was a high number of 'selfish' residents still visiting family and said young people were putting off getting a Covid swab even after experiencing symptoms (pictured, an anti-lockdown protester in Melbourne)
Several state premiers have voiced their concern that ending Australia's zero-Covid strategy by doing away with lockdowns and crippling interstate border closures could see a surge in infections and deaths.
But expert number-crunchers at the Doherty Institute have revised a report for National Cabinet's four-phase reopening plan, with their data finding it would be safe to end many onerous restrictions even with high cases numbers once 70 per cent vaccination coverage is reached.
In recent weeks the Queensland, Western Australian and Victorian governments threatened to renege on the national plan as daily infection rates in New South Wales continued to surge - surpassing 1,000 cases for the first time on Thursday.
The National Cabinet is scheduled to hold talks on Friday to discuss the new modelling, with many predicting fireworks at the sit-down after a war-of-words erupted during the week between Scott Morrison and rouge Premiers.
Originally, the modelling had been based on lifting restrictions at around 30 daily cases, but this has since been revised to take in three possible scenarios - cases being in their tens, hundreds and thousands.
Looking at the three scenarios over an 180-day period, there was found to be no major difference in fatality rates, according to The Australian.
Australia's coronavirus cases have gone up dramatically in recent weeks, but that is unlikely to make a big difference to fatalities once the 70 per cent vaccination rate is reached, according to new modelling
Residents living in households where all adults have been vaccinated in one of Sydney's 12 LGAs of concern will be allowed outside together for another hour on top of their existing one-hour exercise limit (pictured, shoppers in Sydney's Ashfield in the inner-west)
The four-phase plan indicates Australia can move into phase two when 70 per cent of the adult population is fully-vaccinated.
With only one third of people aged 16 and over now double-dosed, Australia is not likely to reach the target until the end of October if current vaccination rates are maintained.
Based on that assumption, coverage of 80 per cent is expected to be completed in November - but overseas, including in the UK, US and Israel, vaccination rates have dropped significantly after the 60 per cent mark.
Mr Andrews had previously voiced concerns about opening up with skyrocketed infection rates, but later maintained he's committed to the National Cabinet plan.
Victoria recorded 80 new cases of Covid on Thursday, almost double the 45 it had on Wednesday in an escalation to its outbreak.
Victoria recorded 80 new cases of Covid on Thursday, almost double the 45 it had on Wednesday in an escalation of its outbreak (pictured, a couple are seen walking in St Kilda, Melbourne)
Only 39 in quarantine while infectious, while 13 mystery cases not yet linked to the outbreak, both of which the Victorian Government take as indicators that there will likely be many more cases not yet detected.
Victoria beat its previous 2021 record of 71 set last week, and has not had this many new cases in a day since last September as its deadly second wave wound down.
The Shepparton outbreak in regional Victoria has grown to 67 after 18 new cases were recorded in the last 24 hours.
Health officials have ramped up support services in the town where 16,000 residents are currently isolating.
The Premier at his daily Covid press briefing implored Victorians to stop making 'selfish' choices.
'One of the common sense practical things you can do, if you have symptoms today, get tested today. Don't, for heaven sake, wait eight days and literally infect everybody you go anywhere near in that eight period,' Mr Andrews said.
'Please, do not be visiting friends and family because the visitor no one knows about is the coronavirus.
Victoria beat its previous 2021 record of 71 cases set last week, and has not had this many new cases in a day since last September as its deadly second wave wound down (pictured, people wait in line at a Covid019 vaccination centre in Melbourne on Thursday)
The four-phase plan indicates Australian can move into phase two when 70 per cent of the adult population is fully vaccinated (pictured, a locked down Sydneysider braves the rain for her daily exercise)
'You are taking it with you to the people you love. You do not want them to get sick, so do not act in a selfish and irresponsible way.'
Mr Andrews warned that if the rules are not followed the lockdown will not work.
'And that's why I'm appealing to everybody to make the best choices you possibly can,' he said.
'I don't know that there's too many more levers to pull.'
Of the 600 active cases in Victoria, 240 are under the age 20.
There are 36 cases being treated in hospital, 11 are in intensive care, including eight on a ventilator.
NSW racked up a grim pandemic record of 1,029 cases overnight and three more deaths on Thursday (pictured, shoppers in Ashfield)
Despite the surging Covid numbers Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced new freedoms for those who have had both doses from September 13
Meanwhile, north of the Murry River, NSW racked up a grim pandemic record of 1,029 cases overnight and three more deaths, as Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced new freedoms for those who have had both vaccine doses from September 13.
The embattled state leader said from that date, anyone who is fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and lives outside of an area of concern can gather in groups of up to five in their own LGA or within 5km of their home.
Residents living in households where all adults have been vaccinated in one of Sydney's 12 LGAs of concern will be allowed outside together for another hour on top of their existing one-hour exercise limit.
Sydneysiders in those areas though must still schedule the additional recreation time outside their strict 9pm-5am curfew.
Anyone who is fully vaccinated and lives outside of an area of concern can gather in groups of up to five in their own LGA or within 5km of their home (pictured, Sydneysiders enjoying the sunshine in Bronte during lockdown)
Ms Berejiklian said the new rules were the best compromise between meeting the state's mental health needs and preventing transmission of the virus.
'We know coming together is what people miss the most,' she said.
'From the various options we looked at, that was the option that met the mental health needs and wellbeing of our community, but also provided the lowest-risk setting.'
Residents taking advantage of the new rules will need to carry proof on them they are fully-vaccinated at all times.
The new freedoms come after NSW hit Ms Berejiklian's target of getting six million jabs in arms by the end of August a week early.
She said the state is on track to fully vaccinate 70 per cent of its population by as early as mid-October - triggering further freedoms for the fully-vaccinated.
HOW COVID RESTRICTIONS WILL BE EASED IN NSW FOR THE FULLY VACCINATED
From 12.01am, Monday, 13 September:
For those who live outside the LGAs of concern, outdoor gatherings of up to five people (including children, all adults must be vaccinated) will be allowed in a person's LGA or within 5km of home.
For those who live in the LGAs of concern households with all adults vaccinated will be able to gather outdoors for recreation (including picnics) within the existing rules (for one hour only, outside curfew hours and within 5km of home). This is in addition to the one hour allowed for exercise.
How to prove you are fully vaccinated:
Download your Covid-19 digital certificate via the Express Plus Medicare mobile app or your Medicare online account through myGov.
If you can't get proof online, your vaccination provider can print your immunisation history statement for you.
If you're not eligible for Medicare you can call the Australian Immunisation Register and request your certificate be mailed to you.
When the following targets are hit in NSW, freedoms will be as follows:
· 70 per cent full vaccination: a range of family, industry, community and economic restrictions to be lifted for those who are vaccinated.
· 80 per cent full vaccination: further easing of restrictions on industry, community and the economy.
But the minor relaxation of restrictions come as doomsday new modelling from the University of Sydney projected Australia is on track to see a staggering 40,000 Covid cases a day if the nation opens up once vaccination targets of 70 percent are reached.
The data, in contrast with the Doherty Institute's report, paints a more alarming picture of the long-awaited countdown to freedom.
USYD's Centre for Complex Systems data project infection rates will hit their peak at the beginning of October just before the vaccination targets are likely to be reached.
'In a sense the numbers are of the same order, for example if you look at the total cases the Doherty Institute estimated over 180 days, you do get in the hundreds of thousands of cases, maybe 300,000 to 500,000 cases over six months,' Professor Mikhail Prokopenko told the Sydney Morning Herald.
Disturbing new modelling from the University Sydney projects Australia is on track to see a staggering 40,000 Covid cases a day if the nation opens up too quickly once vaccination targets of 70 percent are reached
'We say what you will experience is in the order of 500,000 in a month or a month-and-half, it's much steeper.
'Similarly if you look at the peak of daily cases, we say we could approach 40,000 a day by mid-December or end of the year.
'While Doherty say yes, you could approach up to 50,000 a day or 60,000 a day, but at later date – maybe three months. So in that sense they are not unimaginable numbers, it's the steepness that worries me.'
He said whether Australia is headed for 'soft landing or crash landing' will depend on how prepared the nation's healthcare system is to deal with the influx of Covid patients.
The data, in contrast with the Doherty Institute, paints a more alarming picture of the long-awaited countdown to freedom
What are the four phases of opening up?
A. Vaccinate, prepare and pilot (from July 14)
Arrival caps cut in half to 3,035 a week; early, stringent and short lockdowns if outbreaks occur; trials of seven-day home quarantine for vaccinated arrivals in South Australia; medicare vaccination certificates available on apps like apple wallet
B. Post vaccination phase (when 70 per cent are jabbed, expected late this year)
Lockdowns 'less likely but possible'; vaccinated people face reduced restrictions; caps for unvaccinated arrivals increased; a larger cap for vaccinated arrivals with 'reduced quarantine requirements'; capped entry for students and economic visa holders
C. Consolidation phase (when 80 per cent are jabbed, time not announced)
Lifting all restrictions for outbound travel for vaccinated travellers; no caps for vaccinated arrivals; increased caps for students and visa holders; more travel bubbles being set up with countries such as Singapore; booster shots rolled out
D. Final phase (percentage or time not announced)
Uncapped arrivals for vaccinated people without any quarantine and uncapped arrivals for unvaccinated people with testing before departure and on arrival