Make-or-break time for Brexit talks as Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen arrive to begin dinner meeting in Brussels – after Tories urged the PM not to back down on 'red lines'

Boris Johnson and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen have arrived to hold make-or-break Brexit trade talks over dinner tonight.

The Prime Minister was spotted leaving Downing Street late this afternoon before then flying to the Belgian capital where he was pictured arriving at the UK ambassador's residence just after 6pm.

He was set to meet Ms von der Leyen at 7pm as the pair try to breathe new life into trade discussions after formal negotiations between Britain and the bloc ground to a halt because of disagreements over fishing rights and the so-called 'level-playing field' on rules.

Mr Johnson set the stage for a tense showdown with the President of the European Commission after telling MPs that no prime minister could accept the demands the EU is making. But he insisted a trade deal was still possible, despite there being just three weeks until the current transitional arrangements expire.

The PM and Mrs von der Leyen will hold a short meeting at The Berlaymont, the headquarters of the Commission, before dinner with their chief negotiators and officials. It is hoped the discussions could pave the way for fresh talks between Lord Frost and Michel Barnier in the coming days.

Speaking at PMQs, Mr Johnson insisted a 'good deal is still there to be done' despite the increasingly bitter standoff. But he made clear that there will need to be movement on the EU's side if there is to be a trade accord agreed and rolled out before of the end of the 'standstill' transition period on December 31.

'Our friends in the EU are currently insisting that if they pass a new law in the future with which we in this country do not comply or don't follow suit, then they want the automatic right to punish us and to retaliate,' Mr Johnson told MPs.

'Secondly, they are saying that the UK should be the only country in the world not to have sovereign control over its fishing waters. I don't believe that those are terms that any prime minister of this country should accept.'

In a bullishly optimistic performance, Mr Johnson said the UK would 'prosper mightily' with or without an agreement – a claim which has been disputed by the Office for Budget Responsibility and the governor of the Bank of England.

Failure to reach agreement would see the UK trading on World Trade Organisation terms and tariffs imposed on British exports to the EU, the country's biggest trading partner – and could also increase bureaucracy.

The OBR has suggested that a no-deal outcome could wipe two per cent off GDP in 2021, while the Bank's governor Andrew Bailey has warned that the long-term damage caused by a no-deal situation would be worse than the economic hit from coronavirus.

Tory MPs urged Mr Johnson to stick to his guns, insisting his pledge to 'take back control' and put sovereignty first must not be sacrificed to get a deal. But Sir Keir Starmer accused the PM of bungling the negotiations, swiping: 'Secure the deal, Prime Minister. You promised it.'

Downing Street has been trying to play down expectations for this evening's showdown, insisting it is not a negotiation and suggesting the best outcome would be 'political impetus' that could allow the two negotiating teams to engage again.

Who is Ursula von der Leyen, the EU chief who was once tipped as Angela Merkel's successor?

Ursula von der Leyen took over as President of the European Commission from Jean-Claude Juncker in December 2019.

Since then, the start of her five-year term in office has been dominated by two issues: Brexit and the coronavirus pandemic.

The 62-year-old is a staunch defender of the EU project and has previously called for a 'United States of Europe' with its own army.

She previously served as defence secretary in Germany and was once viewed as a potential successor to Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The mother-of-seven has experienced a rapid political rise, only entering politics in her 40s.

She has a medical degree and studied at the London School of Economics as well as Stanford in the US.

The qualified gynaecologist regularly emerged in opinion polls as one of Germany's most popular politicians before she made the switch to Brussels.

She is the daughter of Brussels-born Eurocrat Ernst Albrecht, a senior German politician who worked in the EU Commission in the 1950s.

She revealed last year that she spent a year in London in the 1970s hiding from notorious German communist terrorists.

She spent 12 months in the 'seething, international, colourful city' to avoid the baader-Meinhof Gang, a hard Left group that carried out a string of bomb attacks and assassinations.

She came to London after attending university in the German city of Gottingen after the police advised her father, who was prime minister of Lower Saxony at the time, to move her away.

Earlier, Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove cautioned that Mr Johnson could pull the plug on negotiations unless the EU shifts on the sticking points of fishing rights, 'level-playing field' rules and enforcement of the deal.

He suggested the 'glide path' had been made easier by a settlement of another major row over the implementation of the original Brexit divorce terms.

But he insisted the UK will never bow to pressure over future rules and regulations - proposals that dramatically resurfaced last week after a fresh offensive from Michel Barnier and French president Emmanuel Macron.

Mr Gove said the premier would spell out the 'political realities' with Ms von der Leyen later.

As pressure grew yesterday, Mr Barnier - who increasingly looks to be a major roadblock to an agreement - warned the chances of a deal are 'very slim'.

Mr Johnson yesterday offered a significant olive branch by agreeing to scrap controversial legislation that broke part of the original Brexit deal relating to Northern Ireland.

The EU had said it would not sign an agreement if the legislation remained.

In another major concession the EU will be allowed to have officials stationed in Northern Ireland, a sticking point on which Britain had previously stood firm.

The DUP called it 'unnecessary' and 'concerning', while Brexiteers made clear they will be watching closely to see if Mr Johnson cedes further ground to Ms von der Leyen.

But government sources said big gaps remained between the two sides on key issues – and warned that the PM could pull the plug on negotiations if no progress was made.

One source said the two sides were too far apart for a deal to be struck tonight. But Mr Johnson hopes the two leaders can identify a breakthrough which their negotiators can finalise in the following days.

'The aim is to unlock things so they can give their teams the authority to keep going and finalise the issues,' the source said.

What are the sticking points in Brexit talks?

FISHING

The UK has insisted that it will take back control of its coastal waters from the end of the transition period.

But the EU was demanding its fleets maintain previous levels of access - with Emmanuel Macron under particular pressure from the French fishing industry.

Initially the UK said it wanted to reclaim 80 per cent of the EU quotas from January 1.

However, Brussels suggested that only 18 per cent should be restored.

The two sides are thought to be close to a 'landing zone' that includes a transition period, perhaps of five or seven years. However, there is no settlement yet.

LEVEL PLAYING FIELD

The EU has insisted the UK commits to 'level playing field' provisions, guaranteeing that it will not undercut businesses with lower environmental standards and regulation.

State aid has emerged as a particular issue, especially as coronavirus puts swathes of the economy unviable.

But the UK says it must regain sovereign powers to decide on rules, even though it has no plans to lower standards or warp competition by subsidising the private sector.

It appeared this area was close to resolution last week, before France reportedly laid down a series of extra conditions including huge punishments for breaking the rules.

Although the UK is happy with 'non-regression' - meaning current standards are accepted as a baseline - it has dismissed demands to obey rules made by the bloc in future.

GOVERNANCE

The enforcement of any deal, and who decides whether rules are broken, has been one of the flashpoints from the start.

Breaking free of the European Court of Justice was among the biggest demands of Brexiteers from the referendum.

But the EU has been pushing to keep control of the governance, as well as insisting on tough fines and punitive tariffs for breaches.

The situation has been inflamed by the row over the UK's Internal Market Bill, which gives ministers the power to override the previous Brexit divorce terms to prevent blockages between Britain and Northern Ireland.

Critics say that demonstrated why the enforcement mechanisms must be potent - which is why ministers had considered it important the issue was resolved.

'But if they strike out and make no progress then that is going to be it – there is no point carrying on for the sake of it.'

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she did not believe it will be clear tonight whether a deal will be done.

'I don't think we will know by tomorrow if this will happen or not, at least I can't promise this but we are still working on it,' she told the Bundestag.

'But we are also prepared for conditions we cannot accept. So if there are conditions coming from the British side which we cannot accept, then we will go on our own way without an exit agreement. Because one thing is certain: the integrity of the single market has to be maintained.'

Mrs Merkel said the 'big, difficult question' was over the rules on obeying future regulations, with the EU fearing the UK will gain a competitive advantage by refusing to follow its standards.

'There are a number of complicated questions, which mostly are down to how to deal with the dynamic,' she said.

'We currently more or less have the same legal system, a harmonised legal system, but over the years the legal systems will diverge regarding environment law, labour law, health legislation, everywhere.

'And how will the respective other side react to this, when the legal situation either in the European union or in Great Britain will change? And we can't just say we won't talk about this, but we not only need a level playing field for today but also for days to come.

'For this we need to find agreements about how each side can react when the other changes their legal situation. Otherwise there will be unfair competition conditions, which we can't do to our companies.'

In a round of interviews this morning, Mr Gove refused to give a percentage chance for a deal.

'I'm hopeful that the Prime Minister will be able to lay out, over the course of dinner, where movement is required,' he told Sky news.

'The conversation between the Prime Minister and the president tonight, I hope, will create further political momentum, which will make sure that we do reach an agreement.'

Mr Gove insisted the UK 'holds the cards' in the talks, with fishing rights and as a major purchaser of EU goods. That was why the bloc had been trying to 'claw back advantage' over the past week, he argued.

'I think that the political realities that he will share with Ursula von der Leyen tonight give us the best chance of reaching a deal,' Mr Gove added.

He confirmed that 'level-playing field' rules are now the main issue that needs to be overcome.

'The issue of particular contention is that last week the EU negotiators didn't simply want an arrangement whereby we pledge what we call non-regression – which is common in most trade treaties, which means you maintain the standards at the point of entry – they actually wanted an arrangement that meant if the EU adopted new laws, that the UK would have to (follow them) or the EU would retaliate,' he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

'We can accept the non-regression principles, which are common to free trade agreements, which indeed Canada entered into and that's the point we've always made – we want an arrangement similar to the one Canada has with the European Union.'

Mr Barnier and his UK counterpart Lord Frost are both due to attend this evening's dinner between Mr Johnson and Ms von der Leyen.

Many in Westminster are unsure whether the PM's trip to Brussels should be seen as a good sign or as a bad sign for the chances of a deal being done.

Brexit on the menu: The plan for dinner

The venue for the crucial encounter between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen will be the EU commission's Berlaymont building HQ.

In part this is to help avoid prying eyes - but also Brussels is in near-total lockdown due to coronavirus, with restaurants shut.

Mr Johnson will fly to the Belgian capital, avoiding running the gauntlet of reduced services and disruption on the Eurostar.

Around the table with the PM and Ms von der Leyen at 7pm UK time will be the chief negotiators Michel Barnier and Lord Frost, as well as a few other key officials.

The menu has yet to be announced, but is always closely watched for hints of the mood and subtle jokes by the host.

With fishing rights one of the core issues to be resolved, it would not be a surprise if something linked to that is served up.

One Cabinet minister said: 'None of us really know what is going on. Is he going because he thinks there is a chance that he can return victorious with a piece of paper?

'Or does he already know it's probably No Deal and just wants to be seen to be doing everything he can?

'Either way, it is entirely his call. Everyone wants a deal, but no-one is pushing him to take it at any price. It is down to his judgment.'

The crunch talks between Mr Johnson and Ms von der Leyen will take place just hours before European leaders will meet for an EU Council summit in Brussels tomorrow.

Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, said the summit would not formally discuss the negotiations with the UK but Ms von der Leyen is expected to brief leaders on the state of play.

There had been fears Mr Macron could use the summit to grandstand on his opposition to a compromise, effectively wrecking hopes of a deal.

Downing Street blamed Mr Macron for torpedoing talks last week by pressuring Mr Barnier into toughening his stance just as progress was being made.

Two EU diplomats told the Mail that the chances of a Brexit deal were 'now out of Barnier's hands'.

Is a Canada-style pact off the table?

Boris Johnson set out at the start the year aiming for a trade deal with the EU modelled on the one it has with Canada.

In February, the Prime Minister highlighted the EU's offer of either a Norway-style deal tied to the single market or a looser Canada-style deal, adding: 'We have made our choice. We want a comprehensive free-trade agreement, similar to Canada's.'

The EU-Canada deal, signed in 2016 after seven years of talks, lifted tariffs on 98 per cent of goods and boosted trade quotas. But although goods exported to the EU must meet its standards, Canada does not have to follow the bloc's rules.

EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier had offered it to the UK, saying in 2017 that Britain's rejection of the single market and customs union meant 'we will have to work on a model that is closer to the agreement signed with Canada'.

But his tune changed as EU leaders began to raise concerns that the UK could become more competitive than their own economies. In February he warned that the UK's 'particular proximity' to the EU meant that any trade deal would have to be different to the one with Canada.

He has since tabled demands that would tie Britain into the EU's regulatory orbit for ever.

The UK had been urged to seek a deal like the one the EU has with Switzerland, but the idea never took off – chiefly because the Swiss accept freedom of movement, which Britain doesn't

Mr Johnson said the situation was 'very tricky' but he hoped the 'power of sweet reason' could still clinch an agreement in the final days before the Brexit transition ends later this month.

He acknowledged there may be a point where it is 'time to draw stumps' and accept that a deal is impossible.

Talks have stalled on the vexed issues of fishing access and the UK's right to set its own destiny without having to follow EU rules after Brexit.

The EU is prepared to accept only modest cuts to its fishing quotas and wants them phased in over ten years.

Brussels is also demanding that the UK compete on a so-called 'level-playing field' in future.

Former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith said the outstanding issues in the negotiations with the European Union were about sovereignty and not trade.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: 'I think at the moment the problem that the Prime Minister faces is that this is not any longer about a trade deal – a trade deal is sitting in the wings.

'What this is all about is sovereignty, the question of how far can the EU insist that their courts and their rules and their regulations apply to the UK as we go forward, leaving the UK trapped in the orbit of the EU without any say, and that's simply unacceptable to the Prime Minister.'

Mr Johnson is willing to guarantee the UK will not lower existing standards in areas such as state aid subsidies, workers' rights and the environment, but Brussels also now wants the UK to adopt future EU regulations, and is demanding the power to levy 'lightning tariffs' if we diverge – an idea No 10 says is unacceptable.

Mr Johnson said yesterday: 'Our friends have just got to understand the UK has left the EU in order to be able to exercise democratic control over the way we do things.

'There is also the issue of fisheries where we are a long way apart still. But hope springs eternal, I will do my best to sort it out if we can.'

Mr Barnier told MEPs this week that today was the final deadline for a deal, as it had to be signed off by leaders at tomorrow's EU summit.

But the EU yesterday played down his comments, and suggested that talks could carry on until the end of this month – and possibly even into next year.

Downing Street said the UK was willing to continue talks for 'as long as we have time available' – but ruled out any extension into next year.

Tory Eurosceptics urged Mr Johnson not to back down on the UK's red lines tonight.

In a message to the PM on Twitter, former party treasurer Lord Ashcroft said: 'At dinner in Brussels, grip your marbles tight, pour lead in your pencil, don't go wobbly and don't cross your stated red lines... good fortune.'

Former Brexit minister David Jones said a deal was now only possible if the EU gave ground.

He said: 'We will never again allow our trade and regulatory policy to be dictated by other countries. A free trade agreement is one thing; subservience is another.

Sickening moment maskless 'Karen' COUGHS in the face of grocery store customer, then claims she doesn't have to wear a mask because she 'isn't sick'

A woman was captured on camera following a customer through a supermarket as she coughs on her after claiming she does not need a mask because she is not sick. Video of the incident, which has garnered hundreds of thousands of views on Twitter alone, allegedly took place in a Su per Saver in Lincoln, Nebraska according to Twitter user @davenewworld_2. In it, an unidentified woman was captured dramatically coughing as she smiles saying 'Excuse me! I'm coming through' in the direction of the customer recording her. Scroll down for video An unidentified woman was captured dramatically coughing as she smiles saying 'Excuse me! I'm coming through' in the direction of a woman recording her A woman was captured on camera following a customer as she coughs on her in a supermarket without a mask on claiming she does not need one because she is not sick @chaiteabugz #karen #covid #karens #karensgonewild #karensalert #masks we were just wearing a mask at the store. ¿ o

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