London mayor linked to safe Surrey seat of Reigate, putting him in pole position to succeed David Cameron as Tory leader
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Boris Johnson is being lined up to stand as the Tory candidate in Reigate, a safe Tory seat in Surrey. Photograph: Ray Tang / Rex Features
Life can be ever so tiresome when one becomes a superstar. One tries to focus on the task in hand, even a modest one such as serving as mayor of London, and other people decide to thrust greatness upon oneself.
This is the difficulty faced by Boris Johnson. He has achieved the worthy position of mayor of London and is thoroughly looking forward to his re-election battle with Ken Livingstone in May. And yet many people in his party have other ideas.
Tories in Surrey are lining Johnson up to be the party's candidate in Reigate, a safe Tory seat, at the next general election. This news will probably come as a disappointment to Crispin Blunt, the prisons minister, who held the seat with a majority of 13,591 at the last general election.
But Blunt, who was first elected for Reigate at the 1997 election, upset his local Conservative association in 2010 when he announced that he was leaving his wife as he was "coming to terms with his homosexuality". Members of the Reigate Tory association feel sympathy for Blunt's wife, Victoria, who was said to be devastated by his announcement. The association also expects Blunt to be sacked as one of Kenneth Clarke's ministers in the next reshuffle after he lost the confidence of Downing Street in a row over parties for prisoners shortly after the 2010 election.
Johnson denied last week that he would stand for parliament in 2015 if he wins the mayoral contest in May. He told the Sun:
I really don't see how I can run for Parliament in 2015. Let's kill this. I'm ruling myself out.
But Reigate may appear a more attractive prospect if Johnson finds himself with a bit more time on his hands in May. Two successive polls in recent days have given Livingstone a narrow lead.
Many Tories believe that Johnson would still want to stand for parliament in 2015 even if he wins in London in May. This would mean he would make a triumphant return to parliament a year before his second term as mayor would end in 2016.
There are raw calculations at work. Johnson has ambitions to succeed Cameron, though there is currently a rare outbreak of love between the two Etonians because Downing Street is offering strong support for his mayoral re-election campaign. But Johnson believes he would be a stronger candidate to succeed Cameron than George Osborne; he believes he would be a fresher face. This partly explains why Johnson is taking such a high profile stance on the "Boris Island" airport. It was his idea and he loves to show how he has won Cameron and Osborne over to such a major infrastructure project.
Johnson knows he cannot wait forever if he is to succeed Cameron. If he does not re-enter parliament in 2015 he will probably miss his chance to lead the Conservative party. By 2019, the probable date for the general election after next, Johnson would be 55 and would probably have been overtaken in the succession stakes by members of the 2010 intake of Tory MPs.
Reigate survives the proposed changes in the boundary commission review which will shrink the House of Commons from 650 to 600 seats because Surrey will keep its eleven seats. But there may be one barrier to Johnson's selection as Tory candidate in the constituency. He may not want to be associated with homophobia in Reigate which may drive out Blunt.
1.00pm UPDATE
An academic from the nearby University of Surrey has been in touch. This is what Dr Simon Usherwood, senior lecturer in politics at the University of Surrey, has to say:
The linking of Boris Johnson to the Reigate seat is simply the logical development of Boris's political plans. Having raised his profile and respectability (as he would see it) as London mayor, he needs to get into Parliament if he is to achieve his next goal of leading the Conservative party, and then the country.
Whether he can make that jump will depend on the local association in Reigate. But if they don't, then someone else will, since he does speak to a sizeable part of the party's base who can engage with his mix of affability and determination. However, in the shorter-term, the big winner would be Ken Livingstone, who might find he can keep the chair warm at City Hall for a rather long time.