Early mail-in ballots in California governor recall election give Gavin Newsom big lead and new polls project him winning by at least eight points

Gavin Newsom looks like he'll be staying in the governor's mansion for a while longer if early ballots from the California recall election are any indication - and the Democrat will beat back the challenge to oust him in a landslide. 

Nearly twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans have returned 4.6 million mail-in ballots after the state sent one to all 22 million eligible voters in mid-August for the Sept. 14 election, officials said.

The early returns largely mirror the party's registration edge in the state and more than a third of those who have voted are 65 or older, data show.

Meanwhile, a poll released Wednesday night by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found 58 percent of likely voters oppose the recall, with just 39 percent supporting it.

California Governor Gavin Newsom seems to have a lead in the recall election, with more Democrats turning in their ballots 

It also found that 60 percent of the 1,706 surveyed between August 20 and 29 approve of the way Newsom's handled the coronavirus pandemic - an issue that his Republican challengers claim he handled poorly.

And another recent SurveyUSA/San Diego Union-Tribune poll found Newsom beating back the Republican's recall efforts by eight percent.

The polls results are Newsom's most favorable in a while, according to the San Francisco Gate, as most polling from August showed the race would be decided within five percentage points. 

But with less than two weeks left before the polls close, many unknowns remain.

Some of the state´s most inconsistent voters - younger people and Latinos who lean Democratic - aren´t showing up in expected numbers. Will that change? And will many Republicans wait to vote in person rather than send in mailed ballots? 

That's what happened in 2020 and it helped the GOP re-capture several U.S. House seats in the heavily Democratic state.

Because of the oddly timed election - scheduled at the tail end of summer amid a pandemic - it's difficult to be confident about who will vote. 

According to a poll by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, conservative radio host Larry Elder had a lead among the challengers 

Former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner is polling at just one percent

'The exact number is really anybody´s guess,' said Mindy Romero, director of the University of Southern California´s Center for Inclusive Democracy. She called a recall election 'its own unique animal.' 

Campaigns on both sides are now ramping up their efforts to increase their voter turnout, but are facing the distractions of  back-to-school preparations to massive wildfires burning in Northern California.

To combat this, Newsom has blanketed the state with advertisements attacking the top GOP candidates - casting them as loyal to former President Donald Trump and claiming they would oppose state mandates and mask wearing.

At an event in Oakland on Tuesday, the Los Angeles Times reports, the governor said Californians needed to treat the vote as a life-and-death decision, claiming that the top GOP candidates would rescind his administration's mandates for school children to wear masks in classrooms, mandatory vaccines for health care workers and his requirement that state employees, teachers and school staff members either be vaccinated or tested for COVID on a regular basis.

Election workers inspect ballots that have been received for the September 14, recall election at the Sacramento County Registrar of Voters office in Sacramento, California on Monday

The ballots ask residents whether Newsom should be removed from his job as governor, and who should replace hi,

The strategy seemed to have worked for the governor, who has reportedly spent the past month worrying potential Democratic voters would not be motivated enough to turn out. 

According to the Public Policy Institute of California, 41 percent said California would be worse off if Newsom was recalled, compared to 31 percent who said they thought things would improve.

'Democrats have heard messages about the roots of this recall, and what would happen with COVID and other things if Newsom is removed,' Mark Baldassare, the institute's president and CEO told the Times.

'It hasn't moved Republican voters or independent voters much, but has had an impact on Democratic voters.' 

The survey found that 90 percent of Democrat voters opposed ousting Newsom, while 82 percent of Republicans want him removed from office.

Those without an established party affiliation were more evenly split, with 49 percent opposing the recall and 44 percent support it. 

The recall was largely driven by frustration with whipsaw coronavirus restrictions that shuttered businesses and schools. Those who want Newsom removed turned in more than 1.7 million valid signatures to get the question before voters.

The embattled Newsom remains a prohibitive favorite in liberal-leaning California, where Democrats hold every statewide office and a super-majority in the Legislature.

In the recall, voters are asked two questions: Should Newsom be removed? And who should replace him?

In a deeply polarized political environment similar to the 2020 presidential election, 'Democrats are more likely to vote for Newsom and Republicans are more likely to vote against ,' said Joshua Spivak, senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College who specializes in recall elections. 

With a huge advantage for Democrats in registration 'the more polarized the electorate, the better for Newsom.'

He has urged supporters to vote 'no' on the recall and leave the second question blank. The idea is to not provide any sense there's a suitable replacement among the 46 candidates.

The survey found 25 percent said they will not vote for a possible successor.

Despite Newsom's edge on the recall question, the poll found Democrats are less energized than Republicans and independents. 

When asked if they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the election, 54 percent of GOP voters and 53 percent of independents said yes, compared to 40 percent among Democrats.

Among potential replacement picks, conservative radio host Larry Elder held a commanding edge, piling up 26 percent support among likely voters. 

Faulconer was far back at 5 percent, followed by businessman John Cox and state Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, each with 3 percent, the poll found. 

Former Olympic sprinter Caitlyn Jenner received just one percent.

'Only one candidate stands up because of name recognition and the association with conservative causes,'  Mark Baldassare, the institute's president and CEO told the Los Angeles Times.

'That is very attractive to people who are supporting the recall,' he said, noting that Elder's radio show likely gave him an edge over his opponents in the quick race.

John Cox also received only 3 percent support 

Republican Kevin Faulconer, meanwhile, received 5 percent

Assemblyman Kevin Kiley only garnered 3 percent support in the poll

The governor has therefore decided to focus his efforts on Elder, the Times reports.

In a Zoom call with Move On activists on Wednesday night, Newsom claimed Elder and the rest of the Republicans involved in the recall election would work to dismantle abortion rights and the public school system by allowing parents to receive state vouchers to send their kids to private school.

 'He has this in common with all the other Republicans who all supported Trump,' Newsom said of Elder.

'Elder, day one, will eliminate with the stroke of a pen, through executive order, mask requirements in our public schools, would eliminate vaccine verification for our health care workers and our school employees and our state employees.'

Elder, though, dismissed the notion at a Wednesday news conference, saying: 'This is broad-based. This is not just Republicans - independents and Democrats are hurting as well.'

Campaigns are now dispatching regiments of door-knockers, hoping to make a connection with indifferent or wavering voters in the run-up to the election.

Celebrities, political and not, are being enlisted in the fight, with former progressive presidential candidates and U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren cutting ads opposing the recall while Elder counts actors Chuck Norris and Dean Cain among his supporters.

Potential voters are being hailed with texts, digital ads, emails and TV commercials - and visits at their front doors from volunteers - all in hopes of spurring them to fill out the two-question ballot that could end Newsom´s term and replace him with one of the more than 40 candidates.

In an email this week, the Orange County Republican Party warned that Democrats were leading in turnout in the critical swing county by 8 percent and called on volunteers to knock on voters´ doors or make phone calls in the closing sprint to Election Day.

'This campaign will be won by turnout,' the party said, noting that 175,000 voters had been reached with a recent digital ad campaign flogging Newsom. The party was aiming for an election day stampede to the polls.

'This is where Republicans have traditionally turned the tide: in person,' the email said.

Mail in ballots run through a sorting machine at the Sacramento County Registrar of Voters office in Sacramento. A majority of those that have been returned have been from Democrats

In Sacramento last weekend, volunteers opposed to the recall were distributing flyers that featured a silhouette of former President Donald Trump and the plea, 'Stop the Republican power grab!' Another volunteer crew gathered there Monday, planning to target Democrats who hadn´t submitted their ballots.

Volma Volcy, field director for the Sacramento Central Labor Council, said he recently encountered a barber who didn´t know about the recall - or even that he´d been mailed a ballot. Volcy later instructed him on the steps to vote, after the barber located the missing ballot.

'A lot of people are not paying attention, which is why we´ve got to talk to people seven to 10 times,' Volcy told a group of organizers.

Volunteer and union member Mitchell Bechtel has been warning members of his ironworkers union that women´s rights could be endangered if Elder takes charge. One of his messages: 'You might not love Gavin, but the alternative is infinitely worse.'

Instagram has become another popular platform to influence voters, especially for celebrities. 

Singer Katy Perry recently posted a slideshow warning 'Red Alert! CA is about to get a Republican governor. Vote No on the recall.' 

It warns California´s progressive stances on climate change, gun control and health care are at risk.

Elder, meanwhile, has been sharpening his message to lure Latino voters and residents alarmed over rising crime rates, saying he would push back against efforts to 'defund' police departments.

'I want to do something about the outrageous rise in crime,' he told reporters Wednesday. 'Crime disproportionately affects people living in the inner city; many of those are Hispanic.'