Covid cases in Scotland soared 170% in the fortnight after schools went back, official data shows — amid fears the rest of UK is next
Scotland's Covid cases soared by more than two and a half times in the fortnight after schools went back from the summer break, official figures showed today — in a clear warning sign to the rest of the country.
The Office for National Statistics' weekly surveillance report estimated 69,500 Scots, or one in 75 people, were infected with the virus on any given day in the week to August 27, up 170 per cent.
In England infections have plateaued but remain stubbornly high with the ONS estimating 766,100 people had Covid last week or one in 70, barely a change from the previous seven-day spell.
Experts fear infections could spiral as children returned to classrooms in England, Wales and Northern Ireland this week.
But the UK's vaccine advisory panel today said healthy children under the age of 16 do not need to be vaccinated against Covid.
The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation said the virus posed such a low risk to 12 to 15-year-olds that the benefit to their health would be marginal. They have told the Government to seek advice from elsewhere to determine whether a mass rollout in schools would have wider benefits, such as keeping classrooms open and avoiding future lockdowns.
Britain is becoming an international outlier with France, the US, Canada, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands all already administering jabs to over-12s. Last night Norway became the latest country to OK the move.
But some experts say letting children get Covid naturally is a better way to create immunity because the virus itself poses such a low risk to them, whereas the vaccines come with dangerous side effects in rare cases.
The spike in Scotland has also led to growing calls for No10's vaccine advisory body to recommend a mass booster campaign. But it could be weeks before it is signed off. Former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt today urged ministers to sign off on boosters and not wait for their advisory panel's decision.
Meanwhile, in a worrying sign, Boris Johnson today sought to extend his Covid powers until March to cover a potential winter surge, which has opened the door to another lockdown.
The coronavirus reproduction number, or R value, in England is between 0.9 and 1.1, according to the latest Government figures. Last week, it was between 1.0 and 1.1. R represents the average number of people each Covid-positive person goes on to infect.
When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially but when it is below 1, it means the epidemic is shrinking. An R number between 0.9 and 1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 9 and 11 other people.
The Office for National Statistics' weekly surveillance report estimated 69,500 Scots, or one in 75 people, were infected with the virus on any given day in the week to August 27. This was up 170 per cent in a fortnight and the highest number of Scots that were estimated to have been infected since the ONS started modelling the country's outbreak
In England infections have plateaued but remain stubbornly high with the ONS estimating 766,100 people had Covid last week or one in 70, barely a change from the previous seven-day spell (shown above)
The above charts show the percentage of people who would test positive for Covid in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland on any given day since the start of August. It reveals cases are surging in Scotland after the return of schools, but have plateaued in England — although they remain at stubbornly high levels
Across England, the ONS found that cases were surging fastest in the South West. The area has seen a spike in cases amid a staycation boom and the kickstarting of music festivals. The above graphs show Covid cases by region
The above graph shows estimated Covid cases by age group. It predicts that cases may have been rising in school age tchildren even before they went back to the classroom, and among 25 to 34-year-olds. There is also an uptick in the over-70s
The above map shows estimated Covid infection rates in the UK. Red indicates a higher infection rate, and yellow indicates a lower infection rate. The map suggests cases are highest around Northern Ireland and the North East
The ONS report also estimated Covid cases had risen in Wales, with 28,100 people or one in 110 being infected, but had fallen in Northern Ireland, with 28,700 or one in 65 being infected. Both see their schools reopen at the same time as those in England.
In England, the ONS estimated Covid cases may have slightly decreased among 12 to 24-year-olds in the week before schools went back — although this age group still had the highest infection rate overall.
They said around one in 35 people from school year 12 to age 24 are estimated to have Covid in the week to August 27.
Covid cases were also suggested to have risen slightly among over-70s, although the oldest age group still had the lowest infection rate. Around one in 170 people in this age group were estimated to have Covid in the week to August 27. The trend was uncertain for all other age groups.
Now Jeremy Hunt says UK should 'get on with Covid boosters' and NOT wait for JCVI decision
Jeremy Hunt today urged ministers to 'get on' with a mass booster Covid vaccine programme and not wait on their advisors to sign off on the plans.
The former health secretary said the situation in Covid-ravaged Israel should serve as a warning sign that even highly-immunised countries are vulnerable to another wave.
Britain's Covid vaccine advisory panel has hinted that it will give the go-ahead to boosters for 'millions' but is yet to formally make the recommendation or decide who will be eligible.
Boris Johnson last night appeared to jump the gun and get hopes up as he told elderly Britons and patients with underlying conditions to prepare for their third doses this autumn.
It may be weeks before the final details of the booster programme are set out by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation .
At the moment only 500,000 people with very weak immune systems are being invited to come forward for a third Covid vaccine.
But Mr Hunt urged the Government to press ahead with a wider programme and not wait a moment longer, adding: 'In a pandemic I think even a few days can make a big difference.'
He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: 'If you look at what's happened in Israel, they have a higher vaccination rate even than us – 80 per cent of adults – and they have found a Delta variant does lead to increased hospital admissions, but two weeks after they introduced boosters those admissions started to go down again.
'I understand why scientists are taking their time but I think in a pandemic politicians can also read the rooms and see the direction of travel.
Israel is recording the highest infection rate in the world and deaths and hospitalisations have risen sharply in the past month - despite 80 per cent of adults being vaccinated with two doses.
The country has been offering booster jabs to people over the age of 60 since July, and the scheme has helped to curb rising hospital admissions.
Across England Covid cases were estimated to have increased in the South West and the West Midlands, but dropped in London and the East Midlands.
Yorkshire and the Humber had the highest proportion of people of any region likely to test positive for coronavirus in the week to August 27, at around one in 55.
The East Midlands, eastern England and London had the lowest estimate, at around one in 85.
It comes Jeremy Hunt today urged ministers to 'get on' with a mass booster Covid vaccine programme and not wait on their advisors to sign off on the plans.
The former health secretary said the situation in Covid-ravaged Israel should serve as a warning sign that even highly-immunised countries are vulnerable to another wave.
Britain's Covid vaccine advisory panel has hinted that it will give the go-ahead to boosters for 'millions' but is yet to formally make the recommendation or decide who will be eligible.
Boris Johnson last night appeared to jump the gun and get hopes up as he told elderly Britons and patients with underlying conditions to prepare for their third doses this autumn.
It may be weeks before the final details of the booster programme are set out by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation .
At the moment only 500,000 people with very weak immune systems are being invited to come forward for a third Covid vaccine.
But Mr Hunt urged the Government to press ahead with a wider programme and not wait a moment longer, adding: 'In a pandemic I think even a few days can make a big difference.'
He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: 'If you look at what's happened in Israel, they have a higher vaccination rate even than us – 80 per cent of adults – and they have found a Delta variant does lead to increased hospital admissions, but two weeks after they introduced boosters those admissions started to go down again.
'I understand why scientists are taking their time but I think in a pandemic politicians can also read the rooms and see the direction of travel.
'So I think we should just get on, not wait for that advice, get on with a booster programme.'
Israel is recording the highest infection rate in the world and deaths and hospitalisations have risen sharply in the past month - despite 80 per cent of adults being vaccinated with two doses.
The country has been offering booster jabs to people over the age of 60 since July, and the scheme has helped to curb rising hospital admissions.
It came as official data showed Scotland's weekly Covid cases have nearly trebled in the fortnight after schools went back after summer there
There are fears the rest of the UK will be hit with a similar bang in cases now that classes are resuming this week.
The NHS had originally been instructed to start giving boosters to up to 32million people from Monday, but ministers are still waiting for the JCVI to sign off the programme.
Mr Johnson said last night: ‘The priorities now are the older generation going into autumn and winter, and we have always said there would be a booster programme in September – in this month – and we are going ahead with that.
‘What I would also say is 16 to 17-year-olds are eligible, they have been approved, they are a very important group for potential transmission ... It is very encouraging to see more and more 16 to 17-year-olds taking the jab, but we need to go faster with those.’
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While Israel is seeing record case numbers, the jab is still offering protection against severe illness with Covid deaths running at about half of the level of the second wave, even though fatalities have been rising sharply since last month. There is now growing pressure for Britain to roll out a booster vaccine programme like Israel is doing
Britain's independent vaccine advisory panel, said it was waiting on more evidence that these people would benefit from another dose and claimed that the 'vast majority' of Britons still had high protection — despite the UK's cases trending in the same direction as Israel's
Israel has been offering booster jabs to people over the age of 60 since July and has managed to curb rising hospital admissions in the age group as a result. Professor Eran Segal, a mathematician at the country's Weizmann Institute, tweeted today that hospitalisations had started to fall just two weeks after the top-up campaign started. This graph shows how Covid hospitalisations have started to level off in Israel just two weeks after its booster programme began. When the drive was started hospitalisations were doubling every week. Predictions suggested this would continue (green line). But just two weeks after the jabs were given out actual hospitalisations have slowed (blue line)
He added: ‘I would just urge everybody who hasn’t yet had a jab to go and get one.’
Members of the JCVI said ‘many millions’ are likely to get third jabs, including the elderly, clinically vulnerable and healthcare workers.
But they are yet to decide which age groups should be included and whether patients should ‘mix and match’ vaccines, for example receive a Pfizer jab after two first doses of AstraZeneca.
The JCVI is facing mounting political pressure to speed up its decision-making. MPs and scientists have warned there is no time to lose in boosting the immunity of the vulnerable and elderly with the threat of a resurgence of coronavirus in the winter.
They are pointing to the situation in Israel, where the case rate is currently the highest in the world, but where over-12s are being offered third doses – helping to curb hospital admissions.
However, the JCVI say they need to see initial findings from the Cov-Boost study, due next week.
The trial by University Hospital Southampton has looked at nearly 3,000 Britons to test their immune response to third doses.
Yesterday Professor Anthony Harnden, deputy chairman of the JCVI, said a decision might take weeks. ‘I think it’s highly likely that there will be a booster programme,’ he said. ‘It’s just the question of how we frame it.’
On Wednesday it was announced that third doses will be offered to half a million people with severely weakened immune systems, who were not sufficiently protected by two doses.
The decision was made separately to deliberations over boosters, which ‘top up’ someone’s immune response.
Yesterday Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New And Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, said the JCVI should not wait too long to make a decision.
He said: ‘If we wait for everything to report before making a judgment, we may well be past the time when we should have been making a decision.’