Britain's BLEAK mid-winter: UK records 23,012 more Covid cases - up 2,482 from yesterday - as 'Professor Lockdown' warns 'people WILL catch virus and die' if they are allowed to mix on Christmas Day

Britain has recorded 23,012 more Covid-19 cases, up 2,482 from yesterday, as Professor Neil Ferguson warns people 'will catch the virus and die' if they are allowed to mix on Christmas Day.

There were 174 deaths within 28 days of a positive test, down from 224 on Friday, including 33 deaths in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and 141 fatalities in England.

Meanwhile Professor Ferguson, whose modelling led to the original lockdown in March, said earlier today that schools may have to be closed to older pupils if restrictions on households mixing fail to stem the rise of infections, and that it will be a 'political judgement' as to whether regulations are relaxed over the festive season.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme: 'It risks some transmission and there will be consequences of that. Some people will die because of getting infected on that day.

'But if it is only one or two days the impact is likely to be limited. So that is really a political judgment about the cost versus the benefits.'

It follows the prospects for a family Christmas descending into further confusion yesterday, as Downing Street insisted that relatives should be able to gather - but a minister warned it will not be 'normal'.

Professor Ferguson added: 'That (banning households mixing) should have a significant effect but as yet we have been unable to see it definitively.

'If we go beyond that there is a limit to what we can do in terms of reducing contacts, short of starting to target, for instance, the older years in schools and sixth form colleges where we know older teenagers are able to transmit as adults.

'Of course nobody wants to start moving to virtual education and closing schools even partially. The challenge may be that we are not able to get on top of the transmission otherwise.'

Yesterday the UK announced 20,530 infections and the deaths of 224 people. Last Saturday the Department of Health recorded 150 coronavirus victims, with another 16,171 cases.

Figures tend to be lower over the weekend due to a delay in processing the tests at laboratories.

In coronavirus news today:

Professor Neil Ferguson warned loved ones will 'catch Covid and die' if households mix at Christmas, but said the impact will be 'likely limited' if it is only for one or two days;The scientist said schools may have to be closed to older pupils if banning households from mixing doesn't have a 'significant effect' on the number of infections;

Normal Christmas is 'wishful thinking', says SAGE adviser

The idea that 'we can carry on as we are' and have a normal Christmas 'is wishful thinking in the extreme', a Government scientific adviser has said.

Professor John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies , said 'radical action' would be needed to stem the rise in coronavirus cases, particularly in regions with high incidence of the virus.

Prof Edmunds, who told MPs on Wednesday that tens of thousands of deaths could occur during this wave of the pandemic, said further measures are needed to bring cases down.

He said that a circuit-breaker is needed across the whole country or at least in areas where incidence is high.

'The only way that we can have a relatively safe and normal Christmas is if we take radical action now to reduce incidence – at the very least in high incidence areas – and keep the incidence low across the country by implementing a package of measures to reduce social contacts,' he said.

'The notion that we can carry on as we are and have a Christmas that we can celebrate normally with friends and family is wishful thinking in the extreme.'

Professor Ferguson also warned that the NHS will be unable to cope if coronavirus cases continue to increase at the present rate, saying that while infections among 18 to 21-year-olds were falling, they were continuing to rise in other age groups.

He explained: 'Unfortunately, in every other age group case numbers continue to rise at about the same rate they were.

'There are little hints of slowing, for instance in the North East of England, but we are not seeing the sort of slowing that we really need to to get on top of this.

'It is a worrying situation. We now have 8,000 people in hospital with Covid. That is about a third of the level we were at the peak of the pandemic in March.

'If the rate of growth continues as it is, it means that in a month's time we will above that peak level in March and that is probably unsustainable.

'We are in a critical time right now. The health system will not be able to cope with this rate of growth for much longer.'

Professor John Edmunds, a member of the Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies and from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, has said his own group was looking at how interventions might work over the winter, but these had not been requested by the Government.

Of Sage, he said: 'We haven't specifically been asked to look at different policies quite honestly, so nobody's asking us to say 'well what should we do here?'

'So these are things that we've really taken on ourselves and decided to look at ourselves.'

Sage documents revealed yesterday that only one in ten of people stay at home for two weeks when they are told to self-isolate.

Out of those who were told they had been in close contact with a confirmed Covid-19 case, just 10.9 per cent isolated for the following 14 days.

Government scientists claimed the crucial R rate has dropped slightly and an array of statistics revealed cases are no longer growing as quickly as they once were, although the epidemic is still growing (pictured: Boris Johnson in London yesterday)

Britain's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, Mr Johnson and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak take part in a coronavirus briefing on Thursday. The UK yesterday announced 20,530 more coronavirus cases

Christmas chaos as No10 says families CAN gather this year but minister warns it won't be 'normal'

The prospects for a family Christmas descended further into confusion yesterday as Downing Street insisted families should be able to gather - but a minister warned it will not be 'normal'.

The mixed messages came as politicians desperately try to get a grip on a surge in coronavirus cases - with lockdowns tightening in many areas.

There are tough restrictions on people meeting indoors across much of the UK, but asked whether families should abandon hope of meeting up, a No10 spokesman said: 'The PM has been clear previously that he is hopeful that in many ways we could be able to get some aspects of our lives back to normal by Christmas.

'As I say, we've been clear about the ambition to ensure that people may celebrate Christmas as a family this year.'

The comments contrasted with the stance taken by Treasury Chief Secretary Steve Barclay in a round of interviews yesterday morning.

He said: 'I think few people expect it to be exactly as it would normally because we will be living with this virus for some time.'

The study, carried out by King's College London, was discussed at their meeting in September.

Researchers collected data from a sample of 31,000 people between March 2 and August 5.

Based on answers to an online questionnaire, the team found that only one in ten said they had isolated for two weeks when told to by the Test and Trace scheme.

This is much lower than the 65 per cent who said they intended to quarantine if they received the alert.

There are tough restrictions on people meeting indoors across much of the UK, but asked whether families should abandon hope of meeting up, a No10 spokesman previously said: 'The PM has been clear previously that he is hopeful that in many ways we could be able to get some aspects of our lives back to normal by Christmas.

'As I say, we've been clear about the ambition to ensure that people may celebrate Christmas as a family this year.'

The comments contrasted with the stance taken by Treasury Chief Secretary Steve Barclay in a round of interviews on Friday morning.

He said: 'I think few people expect it to be exactly as it would normally because we will be living with this virus for some time.

'And the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser have been very clear on that.

'But, your point really was about the ability of families to spend Christmas together – that is something we all hope to be in a position to do.'

A Government scientific adviser has said the idea that 'we can carry on as we are' and have a normal Christmas 'is wishful thinking in the extreme'.

Data reveals hospitalised Covid-19 patients are dying quicker than they were before - in a week, rather than two. Pictured is a timescale of when men aged between 40-49 50-59 and 60-69 die after symptoms start (bottom axis is days since symptoms started). The orange is the first wave, and the blue is the second wave

PHE data shows the number of cases per 100,000 people in the worst hit regions appeared to turn and start falling in the week up to October 11 after at least five weeks of continuous increases. London has had considerably lower infection rates

Second Tory MP stokes free school meals fury

Two Tory MPs have landed themselves in hot water after controversial remarks about free school meals.

Selaine Saxby hinted in a Facebook post hospitality firms dishing out food should not get government help despite being battered by the pandemic.

Meanwhile Ben Bradley was accused of a 'stigmatisation of working class families' in an incendiary tweet that suggested cash went to 'crack dens and brothels'.

Both MPs have been roundly criticised, with Mr Bradley called to apologise while some said Ms Saxby should resign.

It comes as civil society minister Baroness Barran defended the decision not to extend free school meals through the school holidays.

In a show of unity, hospitality businesses and councils turned their backs on the government and said they will provide free meal vouchers through the break.

The move followed a high-profile campaign by Manchester United and England footballer Marcus Rashford, who was made an MBE for his efforts earlier this month.

Prof Edmunds, who told MPs on Wednesday that tens of thousands of deaths could occur during this wave of the pandemic, said further measures are needed to bring cases down.

He said that a circuit-breaker is needed across the whole country or at least in areas where incidence is high.

'The notion that we can carry on as we are and have a Christmas that we can celebrate normally with friends and family is wishful thinking in the extreme.'

Shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds has said the only way to save the festive season was to impose a 'circuit breaker' lockdown now - something Labour has been demanding.

She told BBC Breakfast: 'The tier system so far has not worked to reduce infections.

'What we are looking at unfortunately – given the Government doesn't seem to be willing to shift on this when half-term holidays are coming up – what we are looking up to Christmas is an increasingly difficult situation in lots of parts of the country.'

Meanwhile, two Tory MPs have landed themselves in hot water after controversial remarks about free school meals.

Selaine Saxby hinted in a Facebook post hospitality firms dishing out food should not get government help despite being battered by the pandemic.

Ben Bradley was accused of a 'stigmatisation of working class families' in an incendiary tweet that suggested cash went to 'crack dens and brothels'.

Selaine Saxby hinted in a Facebook post hospitality firms dishing out food should not get government help despite being battered by the pandemic. Ben Bradley was accused of a 'stigmatisation of working class families' in an incendiary tweet that suggested cash went to 'crack dens and brothels'

Cafes, pubs and restaurants are offering free school meals for local children during half term after MPs rejected Marcus Rashford's campaign (pictured at FareShare in Manchester)

Only one in ten stay at home for two weeks when told to self isolate, Sage documents reveal

Only one in ten stay at home for two weeks after being told to self-isolate by NHS Test and Trace, Sage documents have revealed.

Of those who were told they had been in close contact with a confirmed Covid-19 case, just 10.9 per cent isolated for the following 14 days.

The alarming figures undermine the premise of the Test and Trace system, which aims to prevent the spread of the virus.

The main reasons people gave for not properly quarantining were not developing symptoms, not thinking it was necessary to stay away from those outside the household, or popping to the shops for food.

The figures were revealed in documents by Sage – the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.