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The Conservative 'northern problem' shows no sign of abating



But the party is at last showing signs of recognising what a mountain it has to climb, up here. Ed Jacobs, the Guardian Northerner's political commentor, reflects
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Failing to big up the northern challenge. Even heavyweights such as Eric Pickles - seen here at the party conference in Birmingham - have yet to get the urgency of the message across. Photograph: Ray Tang/Rex Features

It is perhaps a sign of a party that was rattled by Ed Miliband's speech that led to Cabinet ministers meeting at the Conservative conference in Birmingham this week to consider ways of stealing the 'One Nation' mantra back from Labour.

Where did it start? With the beginnings of a long-overdue debate over how the party regains the trust and confidence of the north, particularly urban seats, in much the same way as Margaret Thatcher did.

The facts speak for themselves. Of the 158 constituencies in the North, at the last General Election, the Conservatives won just 43, a little over 27% of the seats available. For a party committed to governing in the national interest this causes problems on two levels.

On the crudely political one, the arithmetic is clear: David Cameron cannot hope to win an outright majority without picking up more seats in the three northern regions But there is something else, far more fundamental. At a time when ministers are speaking of the need for yet more austerity, neither party in the coalition has a mandate in the north to push this agenda on.

Take benefit reforms, for example. The Chancellor this week announced that £10 billion of further cuts would be needed from the welfare budget, a proposal likely to hurt the north more than the south. Yet despite this, the largest party in Government claims a mandate for such reforms not from those likely to be most affected, but from the south where jobs are in much greater supply. Little wonder that many now openly question whether Britain is fast becoming not one nation, but two.

Writing last Friday for Left Foot Forward, Kevin Meagher, a Guardian Northerner contributor and former special adviser when Labour was in power, declared that the Government "just doesn't understand the North". What then does the party need to do to show that is does "get" the north.

Last week we heard from the Conservative MP for Hexham, Guy Opperman who in his Guardian Northerner article called on the party leadership to adopt a more traditionalist, Thatcherite stance, arguing that policies on immigration and welfare reform played well with northern voters as bread and butter issues when communicated clearly.

Likewise, writing for the Guardian over the weekend, Neil O'Brien, Director of the Conservative's favourite Think Tank, Policy Exchange argued:


Today the Tories urgently need a new round of renewal. While progress has been made, Tory modernisation has not healed the party's worst wounds. It is still seen as the party of the rich. It does badly in urban areas, particularly outside the south-east. And that's partly because it does so badly among Britain's biggest ethnic minorities.

Obviously Cameron should ignore calls from the usual suspects to lurch rightward. But the solution isn't as simple as tacking to the centre – after all, most voters have tough views on crime, welfare and immigration. What's needed is a blue-collar modernisation, focused on the north and Midlands.

With David Cameron having rejected the idea that the party is somehow toxic in the north during an interview with the Northern Echo, just how is the party doing on what Guy Opperman sees as the bread and butter issues of immigration and welfare reform and is David Cameron really the man to reach out to the north?

Immigration

It's one of those perennial issues. When I used to work for an MP and spent dark evenings and weekends knocking on doors campaigning, immigration was often cited by voters as a major area of concern, particularly the belief that many eastern European migrants are simply taking jobs that British people could fill. Gordon Brown's gaffe during the General Election, when he described Rochdale pensioner Gillian Duffy as a 'bigot' for raising the issue of immigration, was a sign of Labour's difficulty in confronting the question. Nonetheless, Ipsos Mori's most recent issues index points to 20% of northerners feeling that immigration is one of the main issues facing the country. This was just 1% less than the NHS, traditionally seen as the most precious of institutions to the public. Theresa May; pressing immigration buttons. Photograph: Peter Byrne/AFP/Getty Images

The announcement this week therefore by Home Secretary Theresa May that the Home office is looking at what, if anything, could be done to curb the spread of EU worker migration should, in theory be a vote winner. But is it?

Asked by YouGov in its poll for the Sun this week which of the three main parties northern voters felt would handle the issue of immigration best, 24% said the Conservatives whilst 27% said Labour. For the likes of Guy Opperman, such figures are likely to be a sign that the party isn't doing a good enough job at selling its problems. That would be fine if it wasn't for the fact that YouGov's poll for the Sunday Times over the weekend found that when asked how good a job the Government was doing on immigration (note, nothing about comparisons with opposition), just 15% said a good job compared to the 68% who said a bad one. Voters' indications seems to suggest that in the north we have problems with the substance rather than the message.

Welfare Reform

One of the biggest cheers of the week in Birmingham came from the party faithful in response to the Chancellor's news that among the £10 billion of new savings to be made in the welfare budget will be the removal of housing benefit from all under-25s. It was the kind of red meat the Tory party wanted to hear. But is it, as Guy Opperman suggests, what the north wants to hear?

Ipsos Mori's issues index found that just 8% of northern voters rated social security and benefits issues as a priority facing the country, and as with immigration, YouGov's findings for the Sunday Times found 28% of northerners believing the Government are doing a good job on welfare reform compared to the 60% who said they were doing a bad one. Perhaps this one isn't the winner that some on the right think it might be.

Would Boris do it for the Conservatives in the North? Boris. Not all secret weapons work in the north. Photograph: Sportsphoto Ltd/Allstar

And finally, the question of leadership. Is David Cameron really the man to reach out to the north, and perhaps more fundamentally does Boris Johnson's star appeal extend to Yorkshire, the North East and North West?

Polling by Opinium for the Observer over the weekend asked voters to rate how favourably they viewed certain Conservative politicians. For David Cameron, the unfavourables reached 50% in the North East, 60% in the North West and 53% in Yorkshire and the Humber. Boris Johnson however saw his favourables across all three northern regions clearly higher than his unfavourables. Not a good start for the Prime Minister. But it's not all bad news for Number 10, as the rest of the BoJo stardust seems confined down south.

Asked how likely it is that northerners would vote Conservative if Boris Johnson replaced David Cameron as party leader by the time of the next election, a clear majority said it was unlikely, while a similar majority could not imagine him as Prime Minister. Interestingly, asked which they would prefer to see replace David Cameron, in the north east and Yorkshire and the Humber, William Hague clearly leads Boris Johnson.

The message then? While BoJo's stock is rising in his party, it is unlikely that he would be an answer to the Conservative's northern problem. With ComRes polling for the People newspaper finding that 56% in the north east, 53% in the north west and 53% in Yorkshire and the Humber see Cameron as out of touch, it is tackling this problem that could prove the key to a northern revival. Whether it can be done remains to be seen.

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