While the political circus revels in Eastleigh's by-election, the Guardian Northerner's political commentor Ed Jacobs
argues that the more important onus is on Labour to end vague and
dispiriting economic talk and come up with robust specifics for 2015
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Ed Balls. The big spotlight shouldn't be on Hampshire, but on him. Photograph: Christopher Thomond for the Guardian
Looking beyond this, however, the news has led to a renewed round of debate, exposing the fault line between the Government and the Opposition, one which will dominate the next two and a bit years until the election.
In the blue corner is George Osborne, the Cheshire MP who argues that the downgrade, contrary to views he might previously have held, demonstrates the need for perhaps even greater fiscal consolidation (read into that tax rises or spending cuts) to plug the deficit and ultimately the long term national debt.
In the red corner is Osborne's tormentor-in-chief, Ed Balls, the West Yorkshire MP who, picking up on Moody's warning of "sluggish growth" into the second half of the decade, continues to condemn the Government for failing to deliver on the kind of growth measures needed to get the country out of its economic malaise.
With the north such a battleground at the next election, particularly if the Conservatives harbour any hopes of forming an overall majority in 2015 however slim that may seem at the moment, gaining credibility in the eyes of northern voters is key and Labour should in theory be way ahead of the Conservatives in the party's old heartlands.
Although showing signs of improvement, unemployment across northern England remains markedly worse than the rest of the country; almost half of the top 20 parliamentary constituencies with the highest rates of child poverty can be found in northern England and polling by YouGov for the Sunday Times has shown northern voters to favour Labour's stance of a greater emphasis on growth over deficit reduction, while a clear majority would favour the introduction of the Lib Dem - and now Labour - calls for a new mansion tax.
So why does Labour continue to lag behind the Conservatives on economic credibility? In the months that the party spent looking in on itself to find a new leader after Gordon Brown's departure, Cameron and Osborne managed successfully to create a narrative that has stuck, one that pinned the blame for the country's financial crisis on the previous Government for going on an uncontrolled spending binge without considering the consequences.
Whether that is right or wrong, it remains the battle that Labour needs to fight, the battle to be both heard and believed for what it says.
To start with, the party needs to prepare an economic strategy predicated on the basis that growth, however slim, will return before 2015. Until now, so many of Labour's eggs have been put in a basket marked 'recession', with Ed Balls too often quick to appear on our TV screens to declare "I told you so" when poor economic news gets broken. A bit more genuine contrition wouldn't go amiss.
Gordon Brown. He got it right ahead of Labour's last return to power. Photograph: Joel Saget/AFP/Getty Images
Secondly, however difficult it might be, Labour should follow Gordon
Brown's example ahead of the 1997 election and pledge to maintain the
current Government's spending limits. Such a move would politically get
the party noticed and add all important meat to Balls' somewhat vague
assertions that tough decisions would have to be made if Labour are
returned to power come 2015. Yes it would be a hard sell within much of
the party, but one which the Opposition needs to give serious
consideration. Finally, while it is true that no Opposition would ever give details of their spending plans this far out from a General Election, over halfway through the Parliament both Miliband and Balls need to gain traction to avoid a Kinnock moment of spooking voters over their ability to manage the economy. To that extent, talk of cuts to come must now be translated into much firmer policy, with some specifics, such as around welfare, to give clear direction as to the path to be trodden.
The prescription for Labour's renewal as a credible party on the economy is difficult, and one that will become more so the longer Ed Balls maintains such an air of vagueness over the party's economic plans. To get heard, believed and supported, especially in its northern heartlands, Labour needs a clear, unambiguous direction of travel. As of yet answers and policies awai