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Sterling outlook: What next for the pound?

Is the pound weak or strong or middling? Opinions on the health or otherwise of sterling tend to differ so drastically, it's sometimes hard to believe the same numbers are being watched.

It's a financial benchmark that allows divergent interpretations, and even carries some emotional baggage: some constituencies take pride in a strong sterling, as an indicator of British economic virility, and a harbinger of cheaper Continental holidays.

Financial authorities and Governments take a more pragmatic view and in straitened economic times are generally happy for the pound to weaken, hoping it will give a shot in the arm to exports and rebalance the economy.

Gaining currency: The pound's recent appreciation is a tale of euro weakness

Aside from what is desirable, the pound exchange rate at any one time will be called weak by some and strong by others. There's a camp that decries the current €1.25 that the pound buys, preferring to remember the €1.50 of six years ago rather than the €1.10 of July 2011, or the near-parity of January 2009.

Questions of 'strength' are also muddled by the relative nature of exchange rates: they are de facto also a measure of another currency's value.

Moreover, the pound's rates against the dollar and euro are increasingly determined by the euro-dollar rate rather than domestic economic news.

Where does sterling stand at the moment?

Sterling is towards the upper end of its five-year range versus the euro. The current rate of €1.25 (80p to the euro) is well above the January 2009 low of €1.02 but well off the rates of €1.40-50 last seen in late 2007.

For the first half of 2012, the pound made gains against the single currency as the eurozone debt crisis re-erupted.

At its July peak of more than €1.28 (78.1p to the euro), it was nearly 18 cents or 16 per cent stronger than it had been a year earlier at its 2011 trough.

However, it then retreated and only a 2.5-euro-cent recovery in recent weeks - on the back of strong third-quarter growth data - sees sterling trading where it is.

Both currencies have been devalued by the ongoing economic weaknesses in their host nations and the massive monetary loosening enacted to resolve those weaknesses.

It appears EU efforts to stem the eurozone crisis have restored some faith in the single currency and that is partly behind sterling's gradual retreat since the summer.

However, the eurozone economic outlook is pretty dire and most analysts expect some sort of action from the European Central Bank.

More of the pound's weakness can be explained by the ongoing quantitative easing scheme. Despite the third-quarter growth surprise, suspicions remain the UK economy will stagnate in the coming quarters and require further stimulus.

The pound was prevented from making even greater gains against the single currency over the last 18 months by the Bank of England's loose monetary policy. That the combination of rock-bottom interest rates and QE depreciates sterling is not a stated objective of the Bank but it is a 'bonus' much-welcomed by the Bank, the Government and exporters.

There was also a change in perception among investors this year that rather than being a safe-haven alternative for those exiting the euro, the pound might rather be tainted by its financial proximity and economic dependency on to the single currency bloc.

The dollar meanwhile had - until the summer at least - benefited from safe-haven status in the midst of global financial uncertainty. The pound has traded as low as $1.53 and as high as $1.63 this year, and is currently trading towards the upper end of that range, at $1.60.

That is towards the top end of the range it has traded with for the last two years - from $1.53 to $1.65. (Before the financial crisis struck in 2008 the pound bought nearly $2.10, but months later it was trading at $1.40.)

That sterling is not weaker against the dollar is due largely to the U.S. Fed's pronouncements on QE3 and the uncertainty created by the US election and the lack of direction on the so-called fiscal cliff.

What next for the pound?

The third-quarter growth surprise has given the pound a firm platform going to the year end.

While there is the threat of more QE, this is usually only a short-term driver for sterling and the monetary loosening signals from the U.S. Fed and the ECB are more emphatic than those from the BoE.

David Tinsley at BNP Paribas says a cloud of uncertainty currently hangs over asset and currency markets in the run-up to Christmas, which is favouring the dollar.

As various eurozone and U.S. uncertainties are ironed out, this should favour sterling. 'We also expect UK growth news to be better than the eurozone's and on a par with the U.S.,' added Mr Tinsley.

Philip Shaw at Investec emphasised that sterling's exchange rates are a bit part in the euro-dollar story.

With a pessimistic outlook on the eurozone, he expects sterling to make gains against the euro in the coming months to about €1.30 but to fall against a strong dollar to about $1.53.

'An end to uncertainty on how the U.S. is going to address the fiscal cliff will favour the dollar, particularly in the case of a Republican victory,' he said.

'Meanwhile, eurozone pressure points will flare up again in the New Year.'

In the long-term, many economists believe the days of €1.50 to the pound are gone and that even €1.40 is unrealistic.

They argue that the economic fundamentals have changed so that 'fair value' between the euro and pound is somewhere around €1.30 and $1.60 - maybe slightly higher in each case.

If the pound appreciates significantly above these rates, it will harm the UK economy and be unsustainable in the long and even medium term.

The eurozone crisis, however, is making it increasingly difficult to estimate what fair value is between the euro and other currencies, and has a distorting effect on the pound-dollar rate also.

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