Despite a bloody campaign marred by
Taliban attacks, Pakistan was holding historic elections Saturday pitting a
former cricket star against a two-time prime minister once exiled by the army
and an incumbent blamed for power blackouts and inflation.
Polls opened Saturday morning across
the nation in what is a closely watched race to determine the fate of this
nuclear-armed country crucial to stability in the region.
The vote marks the first time in
Pakistan's 65-year history that a civilian government has completed its full
term and handed over power in democratic elections. Previous governments have
been toppled by military coups or sacked by presidents allied with the powerful
army.
Deadly violence struck again Friday,
with a pair of bombings against election offices in northwest Pakistan that
killed three people and a shooting that killed a candidate in the southern city
of Karachi. More than 130 people have been killed in the run-up to the vote,
mostly secular party candidates and workers. Most attacks have been traced to
Taliban militants, who have vowed to disrupt a democratic process they say runs
counter to Islam.
The vote is being watched closely by
Washington since the U.S. relies on the country of 180 million people for help
in fighting Islamic militants and negotiating an end to the war in neighboring
Afghanistan.
The rise of former cricket star
Imran Khan, who has almost mythical status in Pakistan, has challenged the
dominance of the country's two main political parties, making the outcome of
the election very hard to call.
"I think it is the most
unpredictable election Pakistan has ever had," said Moeed Yusuf, South
Asia adviser at the United States Institute of Peace. "The two-party
dominance has broken down, and now you have a real third force challenging
these parties."
The election of both the national
and provincial assemblies comes at a time of widespread despair in Pakistan, as
the country suffers from weak economic growth, rampant electricity and gas
shortages, and a deadly Taliban insurgency.
The bombings that killed three
people Friday occurred in Miran Shah, the main town in the North Waziristan
tribal area, a major sanctuary for the Pakistani Taliban. The blasts also
wounded 15 people, said intelligence officials, speaking on condition of
anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.
The candidate who was gunned down in
Karachi, Shakil Ahmed, was running as an independent for the provincial
assembly, said police officer Mirza Ahmed Baig.
There is concern that the violence
could benefit Islamist parties and those who take a softer line toward the
militants, including Khan and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, because they
were able to campaign more freely. The government said it would deploy 600,000
security personnel on election day.
After more than a decade in the
political wilderness, the Oxford-educated Khan has emerged as a force in the
last two years with the simple message of "change." He has tapped
into the frustrations of millions of Pakistanis -- especially urban middle
class youth -- who believe the traditional politicians have been more
interested in enriching themselves through corruption than governing.
The two main parties that have
dominated politics -- the Pakistan People's Party, which led the most recent
government, and Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N -- have ruled the country a
total of five times in the past 25 years.
Khan has also struck a chord by
criticizing Pakistan's unpopular alliance with the U.S. and controversial
American drone attacks against Islamic militants in the country's northwest
tribal region.
"I am happy to vote for the
person of my choice," said Mohammed Ayub, who was the first man to vote at
a polling station in Islamabad. "I am voting for Imran as he is a strong
voice against wrongs."
Support for the 60-year-old Khan may
have increased out of sympathy following a freak accident this week at a
political rally in which he fell 15 feet (4.5 meters) off a forklift,
fracturing three vertebrae and a rib. He is expected to make a full recovery
and seems to be making the most of the accident. The party has repeatedly aired
an interview he did from his hospital bed hours after the fall as a paid
advertisement on TV.
Nobody is sure how effective he will
be in translating his widespread popularity into votes, especially considering
he boycotted the 2008 election and only got one seat in 2002. Turnout will be
critical, especially among the youth. Almost half of Pakistan's more than 80
million registered voters are under the age of 35, but young people have often
stayed away from the polls in the past.
Khan faces a stiff challenge from
the two main parties, which have spent decades honing vote-getting systems
based on feudal ties and political patronage, such as granting supporters
government jobs.
Because of the strength of this
old-style politics and unhappiness with the outgoing government, many analysts
see the Pakistan Muslim League-N as the front-runner in the election. Sharif
has twice served as prime minister and is best known for testing Pakistan's
first nuclear weapon in 1998.
Sharif was toppled in a military
coup by then-army chief Gen. Pervez Musharraf in 1999 and spent years in exile
in Saudi Arabia before returning to the country in 2007. His party, known for
its pro-business policies, came in second in the 2008 elections and is seen as
more religiously conservative than the Pakistan People's Party.
On the campaign trail, Sharif
pointed out how much more experience he has than Khan and touted key projects
he completed while in office, including a highway between the capital Islamabad
and his hometown of Lahore. He's also credited with refraining from attacking
the outgoing government and allowing it to finish its full term as a way of
strengthening civilian government control.
A poll released this week by a
Pakistani political magazine, Herald, showed the two parties led by Sharif and
Khan as basically tied, with about 25 percent support each. The Pakistan
People's Party was third with about 18 percent. The margin of error was less
than three percentage points. But national polls like this do not necessarily
reflect election results because seats are granted to whoever gets the most
votes per constituency, rather than proportionally across the parties.
Even if the Pakistan Muslim League-N
wins the most national assembly seats, many analysts doubt it will have a
majority, meaning it would have to cobble together a ruling coalition that
could be quite weak.
The performance of the Pakistan
Muslim League-N could be heavily influenced by how well Khan's party does.
Both parties appeal to conservative
middle class voters in cities in Pakistan's most populous province, Punjab,
which will be the main battleground of the election. The province contains over
half of the 272 directly elected seats in the national assembly. The Herald
poll showed about 39 percent support for Sharif's party in Punjab and close to
31 percent for Khan.
If Khan's party can steal enough
votes away from Sharif, it might open the way for the Pakistan People's Party
to once again form the government. Despite widespread unhappiness with the
party's performance over the past five years, it does have a loyal following in
rural areas of southern Sindh province and southern Punjab.
A less likely scenario is that the
"political tsunami" Khan has promised does really sweep the country,
leaving his party to form the next government.
Given the likelihood of a weak
coalition no matter who emerges on top, the new government could have trouble
tackling the country' major problems. Two of the most immediate are the
electricity crisis, with some parts of the country experiencing blackouts for
up to 18 hours a day, and the government's shaky financial situation. The
caretaker government is already in discussions with the International Monetary
Fund about another unpopular bailout to shore up the country's finances.
The next government will also face
the tricky task of managing the relationship with the country's army, which is
still considered the strongest institution in Pakistan.
The previous government was able to
complete its term largely because the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani,
held off from directly intervening in politics. However, he is believed to play
a dominant role in the background, especially when it comes to foreign policy
issues such as the relationship with the U.S. and the country's stance toward
the Afghan war. Sharif has a particularly complicated history with the army
since he was toppled in a coup.
Given the views of Sharif and Khan,
the next government is expected to be more nationalistic and protective of the
country's sovereignty when it comes to ties with the U.S. than its predecessor.
Sharif likes to recount how he tested Pakistan's first nuclear weapon despite
intense U.S. pressure. Khan has been even more critical of Pakistan's alliance
with the U.S. and has even threatened to shoot down American drones if he came
to power.
But the impact of their views will
likely be tempered by the role of the Pakistani army, which values its
relationship with the U.S. because of the billions of dollars it has received
in military aid.
The army is expected to play a
similarly predominant role when it comes to Pakistan's stance toward domestic
Taliban militants at war with the state. Both Sharif and Khan have backed
negotiations with the Taliban, and Khan has even said he would pull troops out
from the tribal region who are battling the militants.
His nickname "Taliban
Khan" reflects sentiments among some Pakistanis that he's too soft on the
Taliban. Kayani, the army chief, has said the Taliban must accept the country's
constitution if it wants peace -- something the militants have rejected.