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Rebels line up to jilt Dave at the gay altar

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Crunch time: David Cameron is desperate for a majority of Conservatives to back his plans for gay marriage

Few votes have set Tory MP against Tory MP as bitterly as this Tuesday’s vote on gay marriage.

There’s even dark speculation in the tea rooms that those with skeletons in their cupboard who vote against will find these skeletons tumbling out on to the front pages. A growing number of MPs are simply refusing to discuss the matter with their colleagues. 

It is a free vote, meaning Tory MPs are – officially – allowed to vote however they want. The Bill will comfortably pass through the Commons given the vast majority of Liberal Democrat and Labour MPs who are in favour of it.

However, everyone knows that Downing Street would love a majority of Tory MPs to back it and is desperate to avoid a majority opposing it. They are pulling out the stops to try to get this result. Cameron’s two closest Cabinet allies have been deployed, with Michael Gove making the case to the public in this newspaper and George Osborne trying to talk round wavering MPs.

Behind the scenes, others are being more direct, arguing that given the pace of change no one who opposes this measure will ever become party leader.

At the moment, those counting the Tory votes for No 10 expect it to be very close. They predict  120 for it, 120 against and 60 abstentions. Only one Tory Cabinet Minister is certain to oppose the measure, the Environment Secretary Owen Paterson.

The party leadership expects Defence Secretary Philip Hammond and possibly one other Secretary of State to abstain. However, they are hopeful that the socially conservative former leader Iain Duncan Smith will come out for gay marriage.

As someone close to Cameron says: ‘The size of this rebellion really does matter.’

The vote will be seen as an indicator of Tory dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister. One of those set to vote against it says: ‘It is a good way to show we are fed up without defying the whip.’

Close race: Defence Secretary Philip Hammond, left, is expected to abstain from the vote but Iain Duncan Smith may come out in favour of gay marriage

The number of Tory MPs in the No camp appears to have risen in line with the mutinous chatter. Some MPs are furious with the leadership for raising this issue. One senior opponent of gay marriage complains: ‘It has split the Conservative party and made us all out to be gay-bashers.’

So why is Cameron doing this? Many suggest it is because he wants to demonstrate his 21st Century credentials. But those who know the Prime Minister best claim the reason is simpler. ‘He really believes it,’ says one gay colleague, who has discussed the issue with him extensively.

It is hard to overstate how enthusiastic Cameron is about marriage. Even as Prime Minister, he takes the time to write long, personal letters to friends and staff who are heading down the aisle. One divorcee in his circle refers, only half-jokingly, to him as ‘the marriage police’.

A Tory in a civil partnership remarks: ‘If this passes, David will insist we all get married.’

Cameron and his intellectual ally Steve Hilton have wanted to back gay marriage since he became leader in 2005. So what held them back? The plan was to introduce it at the same time as marriage tax breaks. But this idea has fallen foul of austerity.

In recent weeks, more than one Cabinet Minister has urged a revival of this plan. No 10 has refused, for fear of looking as if it has been pushed into it by Tory concerns over gay marriage.

This is a major strategic misjudgment. For without this something blue, Cameron will be jilted at the altar on Tuesday night by his party when he asks them to vote for something new.

  Will Justine be jettisoned for Rwanda snub? Lost her shine: Cabinet minister Justine Greening

Eighteen months ago, Justine Greening was one of the Government’s rising stars. But since her elevation to the Cabinet, she has lost the confidence of No 10.

They believe that if she had not been moved from Transport in the autumn reshuffle, she would have been forced to resign over the flawed West Coast Main Line franchising decision.

Aides were also concerned by her refusal to offer Andrew Mitchell –  her predecessor as International Development Secretary – official help for a Select Committee appearance to defend Government policy on Rwanda.

With Mitchell on the road to political rehabilitation, there’s speculation he will return to his old department at the next reshuffle.

But in the current febrile atmosphere, the Prime Minister might not want to jettison any Cabinet Minister – let alone one who used to share an office with Boris Johnson.

  Boris's guru is back - with a bang

It has been a torrid few days for the Tories. But one thing is cheering up Cameron’s foot soldiers: Lynton Crosby is  back working for the party.

Crosby, the straight-talking Australian strategist who steered Boris Johnson to victory in London twice and ran the Tory General Election campaign in 2005, has been making his presence felt this week.

Last Wednesday he addressed the 1922 Committee and received a desk-banging reception after his declaration that the party didn’t have to choose between securing its base and reaching out to new voters.

Rousing: Campaign manager Lynton Crosby has been making his presence felt among Tories this week

On Thursday Crosby addressed Tory special advisers at HQ, stressing the importance of ramming home the party’s message. But many in government think that Crosby’s discipline is needed  not at HQ – but inside No 10.

They complain that, absurdly, the PM is now selecting when individual news announcements should be made. There is also frustration at how so many of the policies meant to come out of the mid-term review have yet to be finalised. One exasperated source says, ‘You can’t get a decision on anything’ out of Downing Street. 

The Tories are trying to move on to an election footing. But  the campaign machine can only be as good as the policy material it is working with – and that  will require No 10 to take some real decisions.

 

Every February, the same problem comes around for George Osborne: bonuses at the state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland.

Inside the Treasury, there is a sense of resignation. One source says; ‘It is going to be hot politically but there’s not much we can do.’

Some of those close to the Chancellor hope that the improving stock market will enable him to start selling off the state’s 82 per cent stake in RBS before too long.

It would certainly be a bonus for Osborne if he could avoid another round of controversy in February 2015, which will be just three months before polling day.





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