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Nick was facing a bloodbath - now he is claiming victory

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It was expected to be the conference that marked the beginning of the end of Nick Clegg’s leadership. Instead, he will stride on to the stage in Brighton today in the strongest position he has been in since the Liberal Democrats formed the Coalition with the Conservatives.

The single biggest reason for the change in Clegg’s fortunes was to be found in the Jubilee Room of the House of Commons last Monday night.

There, the Lib Dem leader welcomed the victor of the Eastleigh by-election to his parliamentary ranks. In a feisty but brief speech to his MPs, Clegg boasted of the resilience that the Lib Dems had shown in the fight there and proclaimed it to be a turning point in their fortunes.

Strength: Nick Clegg with new Lib Dem Eastleigh MP Mike Thornton

He will echo this message today, telling the party faithful: ‘We’re winning again.’ Clegg wants to show his activists, who still fret about being in power with the Tories and the effect it will have on them, that the Lib Dems are winning because of being in Government, not despite it. 

Senior Lib Dems admit that this spring conference ‘would have been a bloodbath if Eastleigh had been lost’. But the win there, albeit by a relatively narrow margin, has changed the mood. As one Minister puts it: ‘A route to relative salvation now looks plausible.’ For a party that feared it was facing electoral wipeout, that’s a reason to be cheerful.

A sign of Clegg’s new-found security is how he has simply dismissed Vince Cable’s talk of more infrastructure spending, funded by more borrowing.

One ally of the Deputy Prime Minister tells me: ‘There are two groups who are wobbling on the deficit plan: the Lib Dem Left – Matthew Oakeshott and Vince Cable – and the Tory Right who want unfunded tax cuts. Nick is in the “There Is No Alternative” camp with David Cameron, facing down these people who want deficit-funded stimulus.’ 

Those close to Clegg can barely conceal their satisfaction at how Cable’s call has not changed the political weather. One of his most important supporters remarks: ‘The problem Vince has is that everyone knows what he thinks already. It’s all been discounted.’

Another factor improving the mood in Clegg’s circle is the Prime Minister’s plight. As one of Clegg’s aides remarks: ‘The Conservatives’ chance of winning outright in 2015 is receding. That’s diminishing David’s authority while strengthening Nick’s position.’

Conflict: Clegg is facing calls from the Lib Dem left including Vince Cable for a deficit-funded stimulus

As the junior partner in the Coalition, Clegg’s party is more comfortable with not always getting its own way. One Lib Dem observes: ‘The compromises of Coalition are far less painful for us. Our glass is half-full; theirs is half-empty. They’re becoming more and more p***** off.’

Certainly, the Conservatives are not enjoying the Coalition role reversal that sees Cameron as the leader under pressure. One Tory Cabinet Minister says, with a note of frustration in  his voice: ‘Leadership speculation is cyclical. David’s had his recently and now Clegg must be due some.’

But at the moment Cameron is the Coalition leader with problems. Not only are his backbench critics refusing to pipe down, but UKIP is pulling away too many of the Conservatives’ traditional supporters. A senior figure involved in the Lib Dems’ Election planning believes that ‘the split on the Right changes all our electoral calculations’.

The Lib Dem leadership believes that the rise of UKIP will make it much easier for them to hang on in the southern seats where they are facing the Tories. They are even examining if it will become possible for them to start stealing seats from their Coalition partners.

Tomorrow, Clegg and Cameron will sit down with George Osborne and Danny Alexander to thrash out the final details of the Budget. There will be no dramatic change of economic course. 

But at this meeting – unlike last year’s – it will be the Deputy Prime Minister who will be  sitting more comfortably than the Prime Minister.

  NHS chief is not out of danger yet Pressure has been growing on Sir David Nicholson since the report into Mid Staffordshire hospitals scandal came out last month

Cracks are beginning to appear in the Government’s support for embattled NHS chief executive Sir David Nicholson.

Pressure has been building on Nicholson since the report into the Mid Staffordshire hospitals scandal came out last month.

Initially, the Government threw its weight behind Nicholson. But some in No 10 now regret this. The Prime Minister himself has privately told colleagues that he doesn’t intend to tie himself too closely to Nicholson following warnings that there are further damaging revelations to come.

And I understand that George Osborne has indicated to  Tory MPs that he can see the case for Nicholson going.

Meanwhile, Francis Maude,  the Cabinet Office Minister, has thought from the beginning  that Nicholson’s departure was necessary if accountability  was to mean anything in the public sector.

Certainly, Tory MPs are moving against Nicholson – and fast. Charlotte Leslie, the pugnacious new Tory leading the charge against him, already has the support of 50 MPs for her call  for his resignation. A meeting  of the 1922 Committee of MPs was virtually unanimous in  the view that he should quit.

For the moment, No 10 won’t show Nicholson the door. But another week of questions and debate in Parliament is likely  to make his position all the  more precarious.

 

This year’s Queen’s Speech will contain  a Bill designed to limit Romanian and Bulgarian immigration to the UK.

EU rules mean that  from the end of this  year, Romanians and Bulgarians will be able  to come here to work.

The measures that the Government has come up with – including tightening eligibility requirements for use of the NHS and access to benefits – will all be included in the Bill.

Whether it will be enough to keep immigration from the two countries to a manageable level remains to be seen. If it is not, the Tories will lose one of their key electoral arguments: that they’re getting immigration under control.



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