Margaret Thatcher dead: Of course she split Britain - she HAD to

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Some historians may tell you that the Thatcher process is a natural story of a country in such trouble that it turned to an unlikely figure who got it back on track. But it didn't happen like that at all

The phenomenon of Thatcher, and all that went with it, nationally and globally, was a remarkable example of the role of chance and unintended consequences even in great affairs. 

Some historians may try to tell you that the Thatcher process is a natural story of a country in such trouble that it turned to an unlikely but convincing powerful figure who got it back on track. Very tidy, but it didn’t happen like that at all.

It had become clear in 1975 that Ted Heath was the Tory Party’s Jonah. He had lost two elections, antagonised half the party members (and their wives) and was stubborn as a mule. 

So Sir Keith Joseph, a senior Cabinet Minister, plucked up his courage and stood for the leadership, after much pushing and shoving from colleagues, too nervous themselves to stand.

Enter Alfred Sherman, a man you have probably never heard of. He ran Joseph’s think-tank, the Centre for Policy Studies. An ex-Communist who had veered right across the political spectrum, Alfred had become Joseph’s right hand man with many bees in his bonnet. One of which was that the poor were breeding too fast which, if you could not get away fast enough, he would explain to you at length.

Joseph shared his consiglieri’s view but cautiously. Alfred scorned caution and urged him to make a speech on the subject during the leadership campaign.

Joseph did as Alfred urged. The roof fell in. Joseph recoiled and declared himself too controversial to stay in the leadership race.

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But who would fill the gap? Various senior figures the Cabinet urged each other on but no one would risk the battle.

Thatcher became desperate. If no one would stand she would. Of course she would not win. Britain was not ready for a woman prime minister or the Tory Party for a female leader.

But at least she would have a go and let Ted know that he faced some serious opposition. ‘I’ve decided to stand’ she told Denis on the phone. ‘Stand for what, dear’ asked Denis, so improbable was the thought of his wife campaigning for Downing Street.

In 1975, Sir Keith Joseph stood for the leadership of the Tory Party. But after an unsuccessful speech on the poor breeding too fast, Joseph recoiled and declared himself too controversial to stay in the leadership race

She got enough votes to force Ted into resignation. Other senior Tories, with a sudden access of courage, now came forward to stand for the leadership, including Willie Whitelaw, Geoffrey Howe, Jim Prior and John Peyton, all former Cabinet ministers. 

But the parliamentary rank and file had been impressed by Thatcher’s courage. She won. And chance did not even stop there. In March 1979, the Callaghan Government faced a vote of confidence. The whips calculated there would at worst be a tie and then the Speaker would use his casting vote for the Government. 

Frank Maguire, the Republican Member for Fermanagh and South Tyrone, had been persuaded to come to Westminster and vote for the Government. 

But he had brought Mrs Maguire with him. And when she heard her husband denounced in the debate she ordered him not to vote. The Government fell by one vote.

Crucial win: Thatcher got enough votes to force Ted Heath into resignation. Other senior Tories then came forward to stand for the leadership, but the parliamentary rank and file had been impressed by her courage

The two events taken together might be compared to throwing two pairs of sixes in a row. 

Britain, taken from managed decline to real recovery, had enjoyed a real stroke of luck.

In her death as in her life, Thatcher is accused of ‘dividing’ the nation. Of course she did — she had to. In the post-war decades of high taxation, with the state made into a gigantic welfare machine, the nation became — and remains — a giant array of competing vested interests.

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Any worthwhile reforms will have one group or other whining about their rights to dip into the public purse. Miners, steel workers and others were outraged to find that under Thatcher they were no longer to be subsidised by taxpayers. 

Her divisiveness was a mark of her boldness for which we should all be grateful.

The one lasting, aching problem she could never solve was the EU. But who would now dare proclaim, as Nigel Lawson and Geoffrey Howe did, that our membership of Economic and Monetary Union should go deeper? She was so obviously right and they were so obviously wrong.

Sadly, she became, as 101 commentators have observed, extremely difficult towards the end. I tried to discuss the so-called poll tax with her once — as one who thought it made a lot of sense — but she clearly was not listening. She was on auto-pilot.

And yet, dictatorial as she had become, she need not have gone. She needed tactful, guiding influence, normally provided by a good Parliamentary Private Secretary. 

But her senior PPS, Peter Morrison MP, was disastrously complacent. Michael Heseltine, the epitome of opportunism, got the revolt started and she was out.

As, alas, she had to be. When a Prime Minister is reduced after a vote to asking her Cabinet ministers in turn whether she should stay, he or she has clearly lost the self-confidence necessary to success.

But it had been a great 11 and a half years. And what you saw was what you got — which you cannot say of David Cameron or indeed of Ed Miliband, who has yet to explain to us what he stands for.

As Norman Tebbit said in his comments on her: ‘We could do with another one’.