The British Government — our government — always lies about immigration. This, and its reasons, should be compulsory study for all students of politics, especially those who think that agreement between the two front benches is a good sign (Iraq? Algeria?).
Labour has lied for years and years because it views each new immigrant as a potential, or even a guaranteed, Labour voter. Ah, the secret of eternal political power!
The Tories have a long and notorious history of lying reaching as far back as the 1950s and 1960s.
Yet nothing would have been easier, going all the way back to the Fifties, than changing our admission rules to match those of the rest of the world and not treating all Commonwealth citizens as British subjects.
The Commonwealth Immigrants legislation dragged out of Harold Macmillan in 1962 left an endless array of loopholes, many of them fought for by Labour, including the ready admission of any number of relatives.
No less than four more immigration Acts have been passed since, plus innumerable changes to the Home Office rules. And all the time the country was fed bogus forecasts about the level and the make-up of the immigrant communities.
But the biggest change of all was joining the EU, which had its own set of rules. So we are now confronted with the prospect of 50,000-a-year immigration from Romania and Bulgaria as the EU’s commands take effect next January.
This time, to be fair, the Government has refused to lie. In fact, it refuses to provide any estimates at all. This is an improvement on the lie outright, you may say, but otherwise not much help. The 50,000 a year is the median figure provided by Migrationwatch, a think-tank which has a good record of predictions.
Now here’s where it gets intriguing. David Cameron has a referendum policy, finally enunciated after a series of false starts and publicised by a series of nods and winks. An actual vote by the public remains years away, certainly not in this Parliament.
More... More than 30 pro-European Tories vow to break their silence as Cameron prepares to promise a vote on leaving the EU More people now want to STAY in Europe than leave says shock poll as PM reveals his big EU speech will be on Wednesday The mother who dared to tell the truth about immigration on the BBC: Here, the granddaughter of a Polish airman explains why she HAD to speak upLabour has devised a policy, or a sort of non-policy, on this. The uncertainty about whether Britain is in or out will, says the party’s spokesmen from Ed Miliband downwards, lead to international business avoiding this country, thus increasing unemployment.
The first prediction is silly. If businesses established their headquarters in Germany, say, the staff would all have to learn German — reasonable enough in itself, but a demanding prospect. English remains the business language of the Western world, as luck would have it. Besides, the idea of moving into the eurozone is like an invitation to tour a minefield.
The second prediction of rising unemployment is where Labour’s approach promises trouble.
Possible threat: Labour's spokesmen, from Ed Miliband downwards, believe the uncertainty about whether Britain is in or out will lead to international business avoiding this country, thus increasing unemploymentTo be fair, both parties have a dilemma. It is all very well for Labour leaders to sit in a TV studio and keep regurgitating this warning.
But to ordinary people — the plebs whom Labour habitually forgets — the threat to their jobs comes a long way ahead of any referendum. It is the imminent Romanian/ Bulgarian invasion.
Migrationwatch makes the point that the inflow could be significantly larger than it forecasts. There are, for instance, a large number of Romanians already in Spain, whose borders are porous thanks to the EU.
More from Andrew Alexander... Foreign wars and a chilling legacy of hate 28/05/13 Afghan exit - or is it a very long goodbye? 14/05/13 Why the Eton crew could sink Cameron 07/05/13 Vive la change between us and the French 30/04/13 Are kissing cousins best for Britain? 23/04/13 The expense! Mrs T wouldn't have approved 16/04/13 Of course she split Britain - she HAD to 09/04/13 If this is the last euro crisis, I'm a Dutchman... 26/03/13 Don't break the bonds of Britishness 05/03/13 VIEW FULL ARCHIVEThe economic outlook there is desperate. Altogether, we may need to make room for rather a lot of arrivals. Even Planning Minister Nick Boles could be pushed to find enough countryside to concrete over.
And, as usual, the strain on the social services and education is bound to be severe. The average wage in Romania is a mere fraction of the UK level. So not only will there be a serious invasion from next January, the arrivals will be keen to undercut everybody, bar the odd Chinese labourer.
The Tories can pin down Labour if they want to.
The open borders stem from a treaty made by a Labour government.
And if Labour is genuinely fearful about a referendum producing unemployment, will it voice the fears of the everyday workers about losing their jobs to Romanians and Bulgarians?
What are its plans for repatriating powers to the UK?
Of course, the Government has a problem because it can do no more than wring its hands over East European additions to unemployment.
Both parties will be discredited, the Tories perhaps rather less than Labour. UKIP must be laughing.
If Miliband and Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls have no understanding about popular feeling on this issue, then they are hardly the first. Gordon Brown’s inadvertently recorded comment about that ‘bigoted woman’ will be long remembered.
Backbench Tories will be free to fulminate about the arrivals from Eastern Europe and the Eurosceptic cause will flourish.
How convenient this will be for UKIP, which Cameron does not know whether to conciliate or defy. He will have to make up his mind soon. Sleepless nights are in prospect.
