David Cameron must lead on Europe. If he doesn’t, he’ll be dragged around by his party and end up looking like a follower rather than a national leader. That’s the lesson of the past few days for the Prime Minister.
Yet on Tuesday, Conservative MPs will be allowed – encouraged even – to vote for an amendment expressing their regret that there was no EU Referendum Bill in the Queen’s Speech.
As one Conservative Minister said despairingly: ‘We’re voting to say we cocked it up the week before. It’s ridiculous.’
Downing Street has been caught napping. Following this month’s county council elections and the success of UKIP, it clearly needed to firm up the party’s position on Europe. But Cameron and his team failed to announce a single initiative – and so were forced to accept meekly the amendment put down by Eurosceptic critics inside the party.
As one No 10 source admits, if they hadn’t they would have faced a ‘massive rebellion’ and undermined Cameron’s commitment to a referendum.
No 10 protests that this is an inevitable consequence of coalition. Liberal Democrat opposition, they maintain, means there can be no Government Bill in this parliament setting the date for an EU referendum.
More from James Forsyth... JAMES FORSYTH: Softer benefit rules for immigrants? Not while IDS is around 02/06/13 JAMES FORSYTH: Why Cameron told MI5 ‘I know you are not to blame’ 26/05/13 Even Tories admit Dave needed this 'kick in the ballots' 05/05/13 JAMES FORSYTH: At last, Dave and Ed are telling us they're losers... 27/04/13 Ed had a brutal fall - now he's got to jump off a financial cliff 21/04/13 JAMES FORSYTH: United in grief... the loss that might just save the Tories 14/04/13 JAMES FORSYTH: Labour go to war on welfare - but they'll never win 07/04/13 How does Dave know he's in trouble? Boris wants to help him 31/03/13 VIEW FULL ARCHIVEHowever, there are signs that the Cameron circle has learned from this experience. One key adviser tells me the Prime Minister will take steps ‘to cement the pledge’ before next year’s European elections.
A growing number of Cabinet Ministers are also considering pushing the PM to hold a referendum seeking a ‘mandate’ for renegotiation at the same time as those elections. They argue that when the time comes, Lib Dems will not dare vote against giving the public their say.
Cameron would be wise to listen to this advice. As one of his most astute friends observes, ‘the tectonic plates have shifted’ on Europe inside the party in the past few weeks. The decision of former Chancellor Nigel Lawson to back withdrawal from Brussels has changed the debate.
Lord Lawson was one of the formative intellectual influences on today’s Conservative MPs. His intervention has given more respectability to a previously fringe position.
One senior backbencher emphasises that ‘the party can only be led from a significantly more Eurosceptic direction now’.
This makes it all the more foolish that last Tuesday’s Conservative political Cabinet – the first after the town hall elections – was cancelled. This decision irritated Ministers who wanted to discuss how to respond to the results.
This week’s political Cabinet has also been called off – the Prime Minister will be in the United States – meaning that Cameron will not have talked collectively to his most senior colleagues for three weeks at one of the most sensitive times in the Tories’ recent history. Cameron risks becoming detached from party opinion – something that can be fatal for any leader.
He cannot go into the next General Election campaign trying to fight off UKIP on the Right and hold the Centre against Labour. But he should be emboldened by the fact that the Lib Dems know they are on the wrong side of the debate.
It is their fear of public opinion that gives Cameron an opportunity to make his move. He must take it.
Is Justine heading for the Cabinet door? Vulnerable: Secretary of State for International Development Justine GreeningTory whips gathered in their lair at No 9 Downing Street last week and marked the card of every Tory MP – determining whether or not they should be recommended for promotion.
David Cameron has two reshuffles coming up. The first will be this summer to bring in new junior Ministers.
Among those tipped for promotion is Nadhim Zahawi, the Iraqi-born entrepreneur who rebelled over House of Lords reform.
The second will be a Cabinet-level reshuffle in September, and sources suggest that International Development Secretary Justine Greening and the Welsh Secretary David Jones are vulnerable.
Chief Whip Sir George Young, who was brought in as a stop-gap following Andrew Mitchell’s resignation, is also expected to depart.
The Whips Office remains a problem for Cameron. Last week, to the frustration of No 10, Tory MPs argued publicly with each other over Europe.
The next Chief Whip will also have to deal with Nadine Dorries, who was readmitted to the party fold last week.
The MP for Mid Bedfordshire, who lost the whip for appearing on I’m A Celebrity . . . Get Me Out Of Here! while Parliament was sitting, celebrated her return by immediately making trouble for the Prime Minister on – yes, you’ve guessed it – Europe.
One No 10 source says ruefully: ‘Nadine is Nadine. It is never going to be easy.’
Vince, the bootday boyHow did Vince Cable mark his 70th birthday? By rushing back to his Twickenham home to watch Chelsea v Spurs – though the presence of his grandchildren necessitated switching channels at half-time to view the cartoon Horrid Henry. Cable stands out in a political class dominated by fortysomethings. Previously, his age might have been a disadvantage – now, it seems, voters put age before beauty. This makes some Lib Dems wonder if he might be their best bet for 2015. Nick Clegg's decision to block parts of the Government’s planned childcare reforms sparked a mighty Coalition row and left David Cameron ‘massively hacked off’.I understand that Clegg’s determination to scupper the changes – which would have increased the number of youngsters nursery staff and childminders can look after – was bolstered by a camping trip. During the trip, the Lib Dem leader was run ragged by a group of largely eight-year-olds.But Clegg seems to have missed the point. Nursery staff and childminders are trained. Just because you can’t do it, Nick, it doesn’t mean that no one can. Cabinet Ministers received a chilling note on Friday. It told them that, in two weeks, the Government would publish its assessment of every major project in every big department – and it will name and shame those that are troubled, over-budget or delayed. It promises to cause much embarrassment. The grapevine is also buzzing with rumours that two permanent secretaries could be moved on – Jonathan Stephens at the Department for Culture, Media and Sport, and Robert Devereux at Work and Pensions. Permanent secretaries used to be long-term appointments – now they are becoming increasingly temporary fixtures.
