JAMES FORSYTH: Can Nick Clegg rise from the dead in Chris Huhne's old haunt?

/li> 0 shares 26

comments

Everyone at the top of Government knows that the Eastleigh by-election is a must-win contest for both David Cameron and Nick Clegg. ‘It is hard to overstate its importance,’ says one aide to the Lib Dem leader. ‘So much is riding on it for both sides.’

While a Coalition Minister adds: ‘Whichever leader loses is going to have a hell of a hard time from their party.’

For the next three weeks, the two men who make this Coalition work will be pitched against each other. Whoever comes out on top will pep up their party and head into the spring in a stronger position. Whoever loses will face intense grumbling about their leadership. The last time the pair were in this position – the AV referendum – the consequence was a heated row around the Cabinet table about who was responsible for leaflets slating Clegg.

Meeting head-on: David Cameron and Nick Clegg, the cornerstones of the Coalition, will be desperate to win the Eastleigh by-election

Tory malcontents are already whispering that a failure to win Eastleigh would give the impression of a party in real trouble. Those involved in Adam Afriyie’s recent manoeuvrings have been trying to set the bar ridiculously high, suggesting that anything less than a 5,000 Tory majority would not be good enough.

Meanwhile, the Government will attempt to carry on as the Coalition parties battle against each other on the ground. Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt and his Lib Dem junior Minister Norman Lamb will tomorrow announce plans to cap the cost of care for the elderly.

  More... Revealed: How disgraced Chris Huhne used Parliament in desperate bid to get speeding points charge dismissed Now Euro MPs want a secret vote to block budget deal and defy the 27 leaders

But in No 10 they are well aware that the next three weeks are likely to be characterised by intense infighting.

One senior Downing Street figure remarks: ‘Normal service will be resumed after February 28.’Cameron intends to head down to Eastleigh this week – he knows how vital this contest is for his party and his Coalition. He has placed Stephen Gilbert, his trusted political secretary, in charge of the Tory campaign.

All the party’s campaign materials have to be cleared by No 10. There will be no personal attacks on Clegg. But the word ‘trust’ will feature prominently in the Tories’ literature.

In trouble: Chris Huhne's resignation and subsequent troubles have opened up a bitter battle

Some take this as a reference to Chris Huhne’s downfall, the event that triggered the by-election. But as one of the senior figures involved in the Tory campaign concedes: ‘Huhne won’t have an impact on polling day.’

There will also be a strong Tory emphasis on immigration, an area where the Coalition parties have clashed repeatedly. 

The full resources of the party are being thrown into this tussle. Tory MPs were informed by the Chief Whip at the 1922 Committee on Wednesday night that he wanted all of them to spend the coming parliamentary break in Eastleigh. Oddly, the Tories also need Labour to compete effectively if they are to overturn the Liberal Democrat majority. Helpfully for Cameron, Opposition leader Ed Miliband is planning to visit Eastleigh soon.

The Lib Dems, though, are confident that they can hold off their Coalition partners. They boast that by opting for a brief campaign they have negated the Tories’ financial advantage, and that as they have all the local councillors in the seat, they have boots on the ground in a way that their opponents don’t.

They have reinforcements available, too. As one strategist points out, a third of Lib Dem members live in London – just over an hour away by train – and ‘they’re bloody keen to have a go at the Tories’.

The prize for the Lib Dems is more than just holding on to the constituency. It is showing that they are still going politically; that they aren’t heading for catastrophe in 2015. As one of those closest to Clegg says: ‘This is a chance to put the last two-and-a-half years behind us.’

They know that if the Lib Dems win, the political landscape will change. Clegg, written off for dead 18 months ago, will be on the up while Cameron will be under pressure. What is for certain  is that one of them has to lose  in Eastleigh. There can be no  Coalition compromise here.

  Alastair Campbell is working in the Downing Street press office. This news caused more than one No 10 aide to spill his coffee last week.

They couldn’t believe that Tony Blair’s intensely tribal communications supremo was now spinning with the Coalition.

Order was restored when it was established that although the name was correct, it wasn’t that Alastair Campbell. His namesake is helping out with ethnic minority media, I’m told.

  Will ‘Aunty Angela’ be prepared to help Dave?

Angela Merkel is not a lady who takes kindly to being stood up.

So when Francois Hollande failed to show for a meeting with her and David Cameron on Thursday night and was then unavailable for an hour, he put France on  the wrong side of German punctuality, and in a very bad negotiating position.

The result? Hollande had to accept an EU budget that was far smaller than he wanted and Cameron came home with a deal that saved Britain about £500 million a year.

On the up: Cameron and Merkel's working relationship is said to be growing even stronger

This agreement reflects Merkel’s unrivalled dominance in Europe right now. As one Downing Street source points out, Franco-German leadership of the  EU has been replaced by ‘increasing German strength and French weakness’.

Merkel and Cameron’s own relationship is becoming stronger, meanwhile. One of those who was with the PM in Brussels observes that he’s  ‘a nephew for whom she has affection, but who gets into occasional scrapes’.

Cameron is becoming a more adept European operator. On Friday, despite having been up all night, the British negotiating team quickly located and defused the booby-traps in the proposed budget deal.

This was Cameron’s first trip to an EU meeting since his big speech last month promising to change Britain’s terms of membership and pledging  an in / out referendum if  he is Prime Minister again. 

The real challenge will come when Cameron sets out what powers he wants back from Brussels. To avoid a scrape then, he will definitely need Aunty Angela’s help.

 The Tory Party is trying to put itself back together after its MPs were split over gay marriage.

The issue was decided with a free vote – but what’s worrying some in Cameron’s circle is how heavily the whips’ office, enforcers of party discipline, opposed the idea backed by the PM and nearly all the Cabinet.

Eight members voted against with five for. Expect No 10 to even this up in the next reshuffle.

 

On Tuesday, the Government will finally publish its proposed Royal Charter for the regulation of the press.

But this, its response to the Leveson report, will come into force only if all three party leaders agree – and they don’t.

The Tories are preparing to play hardball to get their way, however. One tells me: ‘It’s ‘‘back us on the charter or we don’t do anything at all’’. ’

Libby Purves has told of sexism at the BBC earlier in her career

Quotes of the week

‘Swathed in our rectitude, we forget that every man  is better than his worst  act and that we have all  at some point lied.’Columnist Rod Liddle sidesteps the glee of those celebrating Chris Huhne’s downfall.

‘Yes! I can get married! Now I just need the legislation to sort out my commitment phobia.’Gay TV personality Sue Perkins after the Commons votes  in favour of same-sex marriage.

‘Cheese. Shropshire Blue. It is so high in calorific content you only need to rub against it, and that’s enough.’Communities Secretary Eric Pickles explains why he is so large.

‘Be as totally awesome as Attenborough. You’ll find things pan out OK.’Comedian Simon Evans tweets advice to TV presenters who fear being sacked by ageist bosses.

‘Knickers to that.’TV presenter Angela Rippon, 68, responds to ‘fashion police dictating that women of a certain age shouldn’t wear black leather trousers’. 

‘After 40 years, memories crowd in and old umbrages flower like mutant cacti. They shouldn’t have asked.’ Radio 4’s Libby Purves, seen in 1978, is asked to fill in a ‘respect survey’ at the BBC and tells of sexism there earlier  in her career.

‘In almost every case, this is an effect of photoshopping. It isn’t real, and it isn’t achievable in healthy ways.’Eating disorder expert  Leanne Thorndyke warns young girls against trying to emulate the ‘thigh gap’ of stick-thin celebrities such as Cara Delevingne.

TV star: Laura Carmichael is happy playing dowdy Lady Edith in Downton Abbey

‘If David Beckham feels  the need to use a body double, then there is no hope for the rest of us!’A tweeter’s reaction to a body double filling  in for the football star in an advertising campaign.

‘It must be so hard  to start your career with everyone going on about how gorgeous you are. To be in that bracket must be so pressurised.’Actress Laura Carmichael says she is happy  playing the dowdy Lady Edith in TV’s Downton Abbey.