David Cameron and Nigel Farage’s paths have crossed only once, on a BBC panel many moons ago. Cameron has never thought to sit down to dinner with his fellow party leader, or invite him to No 10 to see what areas of policy they do agree on.
This is unsurprising given the two men are about as different as politicians can be. When Farage is in Westminster, he holds court outside a pub, while Cameron prefers the Downing Street flat.
For years, the Conservative party leadership have struggled to take Farage seriously. They have rolled their eyes at his golf-club persona, derided him as a man more interested in pints than policies, and chuckled about him being Britain’s most famous Eurosceptic with a German wife.
When Farage is in Westminster, he holds court outside a pub, while Cameron prefers the Downing Street flatBut UKIP’s leader is – as today’s Mail on Sunday poll demonstrates – fast becoming one of the biggest obstacles to the Prime Minister being returned to Downing Street in 2015.
Those close to Cameron insist he is not going to start ‘pulling massively right and acting like UKIP’. They believe that moving off the common ground of British politics would prove fatal to his chances at the next Election. They have no patience for talk of even an informal electoral pact with UKIP.
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At a meeting of the Conservative political Cabinet late last year, there was broad agreement that UKIP was as much a protest vote for those who fear that the country is going to the dogs as anything else.
Several Ministers argued that UKIP was simply filling the ‘None of the above’ vacancy in British politics that the Liberal Democrats created by going into Coalition. As one Downing Street figure puts it: ‘When the traditional party of protest goes into Government, something has to take its place.’
Another Downing Street figure compares Farage to Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, another charismatic nationalist. He points out that both men have successfully surfed a wave of dissatisfaction, but that Salmond’s popularity has begun to wane as his solution, independence, has come under scrutiny.
Ministers hope that the same will happen to Farage.
A senior Conservative familiar with Cameron’s thoughts on how to respond to the UKIP challenge says: ‘The most important thing is not to do what Mitt Romney did.’ His argument is that it was Romney’s decision to tilt right that killed off his chances of winning over the Centrist voters he needed to defeat Obama.
Instead, he maintains that the Conservatives ‘need to respond to Farage as we did to the Liberal Democrats before the last Election’. That is, rather than attacking UKIP, they will aim to show supporters they are better placed to make progress on the issues they care about. Tory strategists hope those who have moved from the party to UKIP will begin to return to the fold as the next Election approaches.
They say that telling a pollster you’ll vote UKIP, or doing so in the European elections, is very different from backing them in a General Election with the premiership at stake.
But the challenge for Cameron will be to prevent his MPs from panicking as UKIP’s poll rating rises. Some will begin to contemplate making their own local deals with UKIP, while the muttering that Cameron should sound a bit more like Farage to try to see off this threat to Tory seats will grow ever louder.
It will take all of Cameron’s political skill to persuade his MPs that this isn’t the right strategy.
Sir Jeremy throws a pool partyIt was Whitehall’s most exclusive Christmas party – at the Cabinet Secretary’s home. A few days before the holidays, Sir Jeremy Heywood, who has fast emerged as one of the most powerful figures in No 10, entertained the Civil Service elite at his home in Clapham, South London.
Part of the evening was given over to a quiz, but this gathering of Sir Humphreys was a relaxed affair.
The head of the Civil Service, Sir Bob Kerslake, was even to be found shooting pool in the basement.
On target: How Sir Jeremy, left, and Sir Bob, might look playing pool
******************************************************************************************************************************David Cameron is getting closer to what he calls the ‘holy grail’ of British politics: quality, affordable childcare.
If you ask aides when the policy will be ready, they look like harried courtiers as they know this is one of the Prime Minister’s personal priorities.
With research indicating those who earn less than £40,000 have little financial incentive to return to work in the early years of their child’s life, the Coalition is putting the final touches to a scheme offering help with childcare costs.
Under the plans, a working mother with two children under five could receive up to £5,000. For higher-income households where both parents work, this will more than make up for the loss of child benefit.
If Cameron can pull this off with the help of the Lib Dems, he’ll have secured quite a political prize – and he knows it.
******************************************************************************************************************************On Thursday, Chris Grayling will show just how different a Justice Secretary he is from Ken Clarke by announcing that he is abandoning his predecessor’s aim of reducing the number of prison places and is instead prepared to create more.
Sensibly, Grayling has resolved to try to bring down the prisons bill by reducing the cost of keeping criminals in prison, rather than the number of cells.
If he can pull this off, it will be another feather in his cap and confirm his growing status as one of the coming men of the Cabinet.
James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.
