You may think it very odd that David Cameron should go to the other end of the earth, literally, to find a campaign manager. You are not alone.
Downing Street pulsates with political advisers. Tory HQ proffers them by the dozen. And not a few Cabinet ministers, grown old in the art of cajoling voters, think they know best. They have not spent their political life fighting elections at every sort of level without learning something. Yet Cameron still wants Lynton Crosby.
The Australian has, of course, a history, if brief, of advising British campaigners. He was hauled in to run Michael Howard’s unsuccessful campaign in 2005. And London Mayor Boris Johnson says he owes much to Crosby.
Strategist: David Cameron wants Lynton Crosby (right) to mastermind the Conservatives' 2015 general election campaignBut we are in a guessing game as to cause and effect. Howard’s lack of personal appeal seemed his real problem. Boris Johnson has more than enough. He makes us all laugh along with a serious political message. And he was fighting Ken Livingstone who more often made us groan — and who was even sacked from the Labour Party at one point.
The real purpose of Crosby is Cameron’s need to find an outside arbitrator who might still the cacophony of advice he gets at home. Much of the counselling he has been given is certainly second rate.
He listens to those who tell him — flatteringly — to keep a high profile and thus endear himself to the British public. But it doesn’t work. You watch him, wondering what folly or hostage to fortune he will provide.
Crosby successfully steered Boris Johnson to a second term as London MayorWhen a Prime Minister starts using military metaphors, you know he is in trouble — and so does the rest of the country. We are in the ‘economic equivalent of war today’, he told the CBI this week. ‘We need the same spirit.’ (Dunkirk next?) He singles out Whitehall and ‘bureaucratic nonsense’ for slowing down government decisions.
But really, Prime Minister, this is the sort of speech which you expect — preferably with the melodrama of war — to come at the start of a government, not more than half-way through. Launched now, it merely amounts to an admission of failure to control Whitehall.
Crosby will find all this fascinating when he starts work. He has a history of emphasising basic issues such as immigration and crime. They matter to ordinary people. You do not need someone from 10,000 miles away to tell you that (least of all an Australian who has never tried to get into Parliament).
More... Cameron's new election guru called Boris Johnson's staff f***wits as he steered Mayor of London to victory PM's new fixer in racist rant at Muslims: Foul-mouthed abuse by campaign chief revealed as he lands top Tory postAmong the obvious concerns, he will no doubt tell Cameron that a truly daft issue such as homosexual marriage defies an elementary law of politics — chasing a handful or votes but risking the loss of far more. It would not matter so much if UKIP was not standing by licking its lips.
For Crosby, the EU and all that is an issue for which an Australian upbringing provides no guidance. Nor has he any experience of dealing with the Tory Lib-Dem coalition Government.
The Tory high command has, in fact, already got a strategy for the coalition. It will concentrate its efforts on winning 40 particular seats, 20 of which are held by Lib-Dems. The future of Nick Clegg’s party is where guessing ends and certainty begins.
The Lib-Dems have no future. The only question left is how their vote will be divided up between the others, including UKIP.
On the European issue, Cameron is caught in a trap of his own making. He wants a massive repatriation of powers but won’t use the threat to leave the EU.
So we can look forward to a series of noisy rows which Cameron will stage over EU issues such as the Budget and votes-for-prisoners to reassure the eurosceptics. But, as Crosby may well advise him, don’t start a fight unless you are sure you can win it.
More from Andrew Alexander... Foreign wars and a chilling legacy of hate 28/05/13 Afghan exit - or is it a very long goodbye? 14/05/13 Why the Eton crew could sink Cameron 07/05/13 Vive la change between us and the French 30/04/13 Are kissing cousins best for Britain? 23/04/13 The expense! Mrs T wouldn't have approved 16/04/13 Of course she split Britain - she HAD to 09/04/13 If this is the last euro crisis, I'm a Dutchman... 26/03/13 Don't break the bonds of Britishness 05/03/13 VIEW FULL ARCHIVE Only Barack can broker peaceThe Israeli threat to Gaza is more ominous than ever. Meanwhile, the Arab Spring, with apparently impregnable regimes tumbling, has given the Islamic extremists a self-confidence they lacked before. And Iran, which we have treated as a pariah state for more than 30 years, can supply Hamas’s supporters with a new and potentially deadly supply of weapons.
As Foreign Secretary William Hague says, there is a very narrow window of opportunity for achieving negotiations between a divided Palestine and a militant Israel.
Gaza is blockaded by land, air and sea by Israel. The settlements built on Palestinian territory have expanded to the point where premier Binyamin Netanyahu can happily regard them as the key to his winning the forthcoming general election. They now have a population of well over 300,000.
The failure to pressure Israel to halt, let alone dismantle the settlements, must be firmly placed on the Americans. What is, in fact, another 100-year war, dating from 1917, threatens a fearful climax.
We delude ourselves if we think something called ‘international opinion’ can settle this conflict. Only the Americans can bring effective pressure on Israel.
A freshly elected U.S. president has immense power as well as security of tenure. Here is Obama’s chance to make the world a safer place. He can if he really wants to.
