George Osborne is keeping his spirits up with gallows humour. He likes to joke with friends about what he’ll do after the 2015 Election, joshing about the non-political jobs he could do. The 41-year-old is all too aware that if he can’t turn things around his political career could end aged 43.
Osborne is facing an awesome set of challenges. He has to find a way to deliver growth in the most hostile economic environment for decades. But the politics are just as difficult. Vince Cable – with more and more support from Nick Clegg – is pushing for a different course, and even Tory Cabinet Ministers, led by the ambitious Theresa May, are refusing to countenance his demands for more cuts.
All this is happening while Osborne’s backbench critics are sharpening their knives. The Chancellor knows that he is in the fight of his political life.
This gallows humour is understandable when you consider the spring Osborne has ahead of him. He will have to deal with the fallout from Britain losing its AAA credit rating for the first time, a problem compounded by the fact that Osborne made keeping it one of the key tests of his economic policy.
His enemies are seizing this moment to try to undermine him. When news about the credit rating downgrade broke on Friday, phone lines between Osborne’s Tory critics ran hot. Even some Ministers who are close to him are now privately expressing doubts about his approach.
More... Osborne urged to cut or freeze petrol tax as pumps prices soar Defiant George Osborne refuses to admit he failed in commitment to protect AAA credit ratingSome of his Cabinet colleagues complain that the embarrassment of losing the credit rating is the result of Osborne’s desire to latch on to politically convenient targets that have a habit of catching him out.
Osborne has a Budget to deliver on March 20, and, as Adam Afriyie’s broadside in this newspaper reveals, his Tory critics are setting him tests they know he cannot pass. They’re calling for a ‘bold’ Budget but the truth is the Coalition has already chosen its path, and the lack of growth means Osborne has little room for manoeuvre.
The biggest fight he has coming up is the 2015-16 Spending Review. With his political capital low, he’ll have to go to his Cabinet colleagues and ask for more cuts to their budgets.
The ‘National Union of Ministers’ – the name that one Secretary of State who is opposed to Osborne’s demands has given to the group resisting the Chancellor – is threatening industrial action. They have, effectively, gone on strike rather than find any more cuts.
Pressure: Osborne is facing awesome challenges with MP Adam Afriyie, left, calling for a 'bold' Budget while Business Secretary Vince Cable believes the Government should borrow more to fund capital spendingThe most militant is Business Secretary Vince Cable, who has long said that the AAA credit rating doesn’t matter and has been privately convinced that the Government should borrow more to fund capital spending. He is struggling to conceal his doubts about the Coalition’s economic policy and is simply not prepared to sign up to more cuts. He fears they would be self-defeating.
But Osborne is keen to challenge Labour at the next Election on whether or not it accepts the Coalition’s spending plans. He knows that one of his remaining trump cards is that the public don’t trust a Labour Government to live within its means.
But it is not just the Lib Dems who are causing Osborne problems – Ministers on his own side are threatening defiance, too.
They are led by the formidable figure of the Home Secretary. Mrs May doesn’t pick many fights but those she does, she doesn’t lose. Her allies have been talking up her leadership credentials in recent months and, tellingly, next month she will set out her political credo at a conference of Tory activists.
These Tory Ministers don’t have an ideological objection to more cuts, but simply don’t want to have to make them to their own budgets.
They complain that the decision to protect health and schools means that the axe is falling too harshly on their spending departments. ‘We’ve already done the horrible things. We’re now being asked to do the appallingly horrible,’ one protests.
Osborne’s career hangs in balance. Fail and he’ll be derided as a stubborn man who drove his party on to the rocks. But if he pulls this off, he will be the man who weathered the storm. The stakes could not be higher for him, his party or the country.
Mandarins have issued a discreet reminder to Ministers to check they are properly dressed before they meet the Prince of Wales, following the experience of Nick Boles.
The Planning Minister managed to attend an audience with the heir to the throne with his flies undone. Unfortunately, he did not notice until halfway through the meeting, prompting red faces all round.
The country may have lost its AAA credit rating and our troops are still in Afghanistan, but Cabinet Ministers are being asked to review a ‘national ambition’ for walking and cycling.
I’ve seen a letter sent by Norman Baker, the Liberal Democrat Transport Minister, to the Home Affairs Committee. He writes: ‘The establishment of a cross-sector project team reflects a need to work across organisational, sectoral and geographical boundaries if we are to deliver transformational change.’
Baker clearly sees this not as the unfunny version of the Ministry of Silly Walks but as a major initiative. One wonders what Norman Tebbit, the last Minister to tell people to get on their bikes, would make of it all.
HOWZAT! Will Dave ever learn to quit while he's ahead? Batting on: David Cameron in action in MumbaiFor any Prime Minister, quitting when you’re ahead is the most difficult thing to do, as David Cameron discovered in India last week.
The Prime Minister had agreed to take part in a game of park cricket with some children in Mumbai. Cameron, who is more of a fan of tennis than cricket, surprised some spectators with some well-timed cover drives that raced away to the boundary.
After a few of these, aides discreetly suggested to the PM that he might want to declare and walk off with a ‘not out’ to his name.
But Cameron insisted on carrying on. He said he was enjoying himself and felt in good nick. But the next ball, he was clean bowled.
It was a timely reminder that Prime Ministers will go on and on until their wicket is broken.
