No one woke the Prime Minister to tell him the worst had happened in Eastleigh: his party had finished third behind not only the Liberal Democrats but UKIP, too. But as soon as he was up, No 10 braced itself for a nightmare day.
In the end, the Tory ranks were less mutinous than Downing Street feared. But this doesn’t mean the danger has passed.
For David Cameron and George Osborne’s internal enemies have, one MP tells me, ‘decided to wait for the Budget’ in just over a fortnight. Then they will demand a change of economic direction. They will warn that without it, neither the economy nor the Tory Party’s fortunes will improve.
Adam Afriyie will be at the forefront of these calls. He has been riled by mockery, albeit mild by Westminster standards, of his prospects following this newspaper’s revelations about his leadership ambitions. One source close to him remarks that ‘the gloves are now off’.
Clegg has no intention of making life easier for his Coalition partner. The Lib Dems feel the Tories’ decision to publicly target 20 of their seats has absolved them of the responsibility to cut Cameron any slackNo 10 knows it must reassure its own side that it has a plan. Tory MPs are being invited, 20 at a time, for sandwich lunches and cosy chats with Cameron.
The Prime Minister is also trying to put some steel into the Downing Street machine by bringing in a slew of Tory wise men to offer him policy advice.
But his plan has hit a snag: Nick Clegg. Cameron wanted to replace the outgoing civil servant head of the No 10 policy unit with his own political appointee. He then wanted to fill it with experienced Tory policy hands and have it work solely for him, rather than for both him and Clegg. In exchange, the Deputy Prime Minister would be allowed to expand his own policy outfit.
Chancellor George Osborne's Budget will bring out the Tories' 'enemies'However, when Clegg returned to work last Monday, he objected to this plan in no uncertain terms. The result is an impasse.
This is a sign that Clegg has no intention of making life easier for his Coalition partner. The Lib Dems feel the Tories’ decision to publicly target 20 of their seats has absolved them of the responsibility to cut Cameron any slack. They are also scathing about what the party is up to politically. One remarks: ‘They’re in a state of utter strategic confusion.’
Part of the Tories’ problem is that they are having to fight on multiple fronts. There is their battle with Labour, their effort to stop UKIP and the need to take seats off their Coalition partners. None of which was helped by their pasting in Eastleigh.
The Tory leadership is determined not to overreact to this failure. I do, though, understand that the Tories intend to attack UKIP. Cameron will stay above the fray. But senior Tories will soon start hitting it as the ‘Santa Claus party’, ridiculing the claim that it can cut taxes while vastly increasing spending on defence and public services. They will seek to portray Nigel Farage as a confidence trickster, trying to pull the wool over voters’ eyes.
BUT given that most people vote UKIP to make a point, it might not help much. A Minister close to Cameron warns: ‘They’ll always be a protest party and it is now a party that is uniquely well placed to take votes off us.’
More... JAMES FORSYTH: Can Nick Clegg rise from the dead in Chris Huhne's old haunt? Nick Clegg clings on, thanks to a lacklustre Eastleigh by-election campaign by LabourThe key to a Tory revival is still the economy and attention is now focused on the Budget. There is a determination to do as much as possible to help with the cost of living and avoid piling pain on the ‘squeezed middle’. So in Budget week they will announce the introduction of a childcare entitlement for everyone bar those earning above £150,000 a year. I also understand further action on fuel duty is likely.
But even if the Budget goes well, Cameron still faces a difficult time. As one confidant puts it: ‘We’re in for a pretty awful four months.’ Their expectation is that by the summer, the economy will have started to bloom and party fortunes will improve.
If this doesn’t happen, though, conference this autumn will be a stormy affair.
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If you want a friend in politics, get a dog, they say. But up-and-coming Tory Jake Berry has gone one better than that.
The MP for Rossendale and Darwen in Lancashire has got his canine chum bringing home a pay cheque, too.
Pedigree chums: Tory MP Jake Berry with his fashionable doggy friend, Lola, who will star in the new Hobbs campaignBerry’s poodle Lola is the star of the new-season advertising campaign by Hobbs, the British clothing chain whose styles have been a favourite with the Duchess of Cambridge.
Lola is clearly a fashionable pooch. And the word in Westminster is that her owner will be in fashion when the Tory Party comes to update its look for the next Election.
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David Cameron’s push to change Britain’s EU membership terms will soon receive a boost when a group called Business for Britain is launched.
It is the brainchild of Matthew Elliott, who ran the successful No2AV campaign, and is modelled on Business for Sterling, which played a crucial role in keeping this country out of the euro.
The group will represent the business mainstream against extremes of the European debate and has already attracted considerable support, including from one influential Labour donor.
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When the Tories came to power, they knew that the European Convention on Human Rights and European Court of Human Rights would cause them trouble. But they didn’t realise how it would limit what they could do day to day.
By then, they were in Government with a party that is ideologically wedded to the supremacy of the European Court.
This is why today’s news, broken by The Mail on Sunday, that Theresa May and Chris Grayling are considering having a majority Tory government take Britain out of the Convention and the ECHR is so important. The Tory position on this issue will form a major plank of their manifesto and will be an illustration of how different a Tory government would be from another coalition. By enshrining human rights in British law and making the Supreme Court here the ultimate arbiter, the Tories would show that they want this country to run its own affairs.
May and Grayling face resistance from Attorney General Dominic Grieve, but they are winning the argument. If they can deliver, it will confirm their reputations as two of the most influential Tory members of the Cabinet.
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QUOTES OF THE WEEK Best Actress winner Jennifer LawrenceYou guys are just standing up because you feel bad that I fell down.'
Best Actress winner Jennifer Lawrence gets a big hand from the Oscars crowd after takign a tumble on her way up to the podium.
‘It is good for the Coalition that the Coalition was able to retain the seat.’Tory deputy chairman Sarah Newton puts on a brave face after the party is beaten into third place by UKIP as the Lib Dems retain Eastleigh.
‘Trust arrives on foot but leaves in a Ferrari . . . the Ferrari screeched out of the parking lot in 2008.’Mark Carney, incoming Governor of the Bank of England, warning that banks must regain public faith in them.
‘Free cocktails and nipple tassels, right?’Martha Lane Fox, lastminute.com founder, tweets after becoming a member of the House of Lords.
‘Is this the way you’re meant to interact with other people? It’s kind of emasculating.’Google boss Sergey Brintires of people constantly playing with their smartphones.
‘If more men were homosexual, there would be no wars . . . Wars and armies and nuclear weapons are essentially heterosexual hobbies.’Morrissey, former Smiths frontman, blames conflict on straight society.
January Jones ate her placenta‘I’m Dorothy’s daughter up top, but the Tin Man down below.’ Liza Minnelli, daughter of The Wizard Of Oz star Judy Garland, after her performing career has left her with crushed discs, plates, screws, two false hips and a wired-up knee.
‘It’s not gross or witchcrafty.’Mad Men star January Jones, who ate her placenta in capsule form after the birth of her son, Xander, saying it relieved depression and fatigue.
‘Haven’t you run before? This isn’t your first time?’US TV presenter LaTonya Norton interviews Mo Farah as winner of a half-marathon without knowing he is a double Olympic gold medallist.
‘My wife Rebecca has lived with some very strange men.’Triple Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis praises his wife for tolerating his obsessive preparation for his film roles.
