Skip to main content

Number of people dying because of unbearable heat 'set to double this century because of climate change'

The number of people dying from unbearable heat in big cities could almost double because of climate change, according to new research.

A study in Manhattan found the number of fatalities caused by global warming will far outstrip the reductions in those perishing from the cold.

It follows a report last year by the Health Protection Agency that warned heat related deaths in the UK will increase by more than 10,000 annually - a fivefold rise.

The study found that heat related deaths in new York could rise by 91 percent in the 2080s

The latest paper used projections from 16 global climate models under two different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to predict temperature related deaths in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

In one, heat related deaths rose by 91 percent in the 2080s, compared to the annual average of 369 in the Big Apple's most densely populated borough in the 1980s.

  More... What bubbles beneath: Beautiful patterns of frozen bubbles trapped in Canada lake are highly flammable methane gas 'You're so self-obsessed!': Stephen Colbert holds no punches in speech to University of Virginia grads

The decrease of 34.1 percent in the 340 cold related deaths during the same period meant an overall rise in temperature related deaths of 31 percent.

Another table based on alternative calculations predicted a 50 percent increase in 'heat' deaths and a 22.1 percent fall in 'cold' deaths, a net rise in 'temperature related deaths' of 15.5 percent.

The scenarios also forecast heat deaths will rise by 21.5 percent or 22.2 percent in the 2020s and cold deaths fall by 12.2 percent or 11.1 percent, a 5.3 percent or 6.2 percent increase in temperature related deaths respectively.

The HPA fears old people restricted to their homes and patients in hospital will be unable to cope

And in the 2050s heat deaths will rise by 36.9 percent or 49.4 percent and cold deaths fall by 17.3 percent or 21.5 per cent, a net rise in 'temperature' deaths of 10.9 percent or 15.4 percent.

The researchers said their findings published in Nature Climate Change highlight the importance of public health risk management in response to global warming.

They said rising temperatures in urban areas may lead to increased heat related mortality as well as reduced cold related mortality but until now the overall annual effect has been largely uncertain.

The impacts on estimated annual mortality from the different models and scenarios were similar in the 2020s, but began to diverge in the 2050s and differed substantially by the 2080s.

The pattern of divergence in mortality mirrors a similar pattern in projected warming. Large increases in the percentage of annual mortality occurred in May and September, when absolute mortality associated with temperature is relatively low at present. 

The Manhattan based study said that the number of people dying from global warming will be far more than the number who will be saved from the cold

The researchers suggest that adaptation planning strategies for the public health sector may need to consider promoting vigilance outside the traditional high 'heat risk' months between June and August.

Professor Patrick Kinney, of Columbia University, New York, said: 'The impact of warming temperatures on population health is of increasing concern to health practitioners and policy makers.

'Urban areas such as New York City are especially vulnerable to temperature extremes owing to the high concentration of susceptible populations, as well as enhancement of temperatures due to the urban heat island effects.

'Temperatures in the New York City region increased by 2 C between 1901 and 2000, substantially exceeding global and US national trends. Preparing for and preventing temperature related health problems has beenidentified as a high priority topic by New York City's government.'

The urban 'heat island' phenomenon relates to big cities where buildings and asphalt help capture the sun's light resulting in warmer temperatures.

Added Prof Kinney: 'All 32 projections yielded warm season increases and cold season decreases in temperature related mortality, with positive net annual temperature related deaths in allcases.

'Monthly analyses showed the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September.

'These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.'

At the moment 2,000 people in the UK die every year as a result of heat waves, mostly the old and vulnerable who find it difficult to cool down. 

But by 2080 the temperature in towns and cities could rise by 10C, peaking at up to 40C (104F) in London, in the summer for several days.

People in big cities, such as Hong Kong (pictured), could suffer as a result of rising temperatures

The HPA fears old people restricted to their homes and patients in hospital will be unable to cope. 

In a report on climate change, the Government Agency predicted almost 12,000 'heat related deaths' by the 2080s, an increase of more than 500 per cent. The problem is even worse if the 'heat island effect' is included. 

Rising temperatures could also mean that British people may contract exotic illnesses at home as new species of mosquito, that carry tropical diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya, could migrate to the UK.




Popular posts from this blog

Study Abroad USA, College of Charleston, Popular Courses, Alumni

Thinking for Study Abroad USA. School of Charleston, the wonderful grounds is situated in the actual middle of a verifiable city - Charleston. Get snatched up by the wonderful and customary engineering, beautiful pathways, or look at the advanced steel and glass building which houses the School of Business. The grounds additionally gives students simple admittance to a few major tech organizations like Amazon's CreateSpace, Google, TwitPic, and so on. The school offers students nearby as well as off-grounds convenience going from completely outfitted home lobbies to memorable homes. It is prepared to offer different types of assistance and facilities like clubs, associations, sporting exercises, support administrations, etc. To put it plainly, the school grounds is rising with energy and there will never be a dull second for students at the College of Charleston. Concentrate on Abroad USA is improving and remunerating for your future. The energetic grounds likewise houses various

Best MBA Online Colleges in the USA

“Opportunities never open, instead we create them for us”. Beginning with this amazing saying, let’s unbox today’s knowledge. Love Business and marketing? Want to make a high-paid career in business administration? Well, if yes, then mate, we have got you something amazing to do!   We all imagine an effortless future with a cozy house and a laptop. Well, well! You can make this happen. Today, with this guide, we will be exploring some of the top-notch online MBA universities and institutes in the USA. Let’s get started! Why learn Online MBA from the USA? Access to More Options This online era has given a second chance to children who want to reflect on their careers while managing their hectic schedules. In this, the internet has played a very crucial in rejuvenating schools, institutes, and colleges to give the best education to students across the globe. Graduating with Less Debt Regular classes from high reputed institutes often charge heavy tuition fees. However onl

Sickening moment maskless 'Karen' COUGHS in the face of grocery store customer, then claims she doesn't have to wear a mask because she 'isn't sick'

A woman was captured on camera following a customer through a supermarket as she coughs on her after claiming she does not need a mask because she is not sick.  Video of the incident, which has garnered hundreds of thousands of views on Twitter alone, allegedly took place in a Su per Saver in Lincoln, Nebraska according to Twitter user @davenewworld_2. In it, an unidentified woman was captured dramatically coughing as she smiles saying 'Excuse me! I'm coming through' in the direction of the customer recording her. Scroll down for video An unidentified woman was captured dramatically coughing as she smiles saying 'Excuse me! I'm coming through' in the direction of a woman recording her A woman was captured on camera following a customer as she coughs on her in a supermarket without a mask on claiming she does not need one because she is not sick @chaiteabugz #karen #covid #karens #karensgonewild #karensalert #masks we were just wearing a mask at the store. ¿ o