MPs believe David Cameron's determination to succeed as prime minister and to walk tall in EU trump his euroscepticism
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David Cameron pictured leaving Downing Street for prime minister's questions where a succession of Tory MPs challenged him on Europe. EPA/ANDY RAIN Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA
David Cameron may not have been attending today's EU summit in Brussels as prime minister had he not made a decisive intervention in the 2005 Tory leadership contest.
The future prime minister started to win over the right when he gave an assurance to the Cornerstone Group that he would pull the Tories out of the main centre right grouping in the European Parliament. *
John Hayes, one of the guiding lights in Cornerstone – dubbed Tombstone by some Cameron supporters – threw his weight behind Cameron who rewarded him with a ministerial post. Hayes is an ally of Iain Duncan Smith who is playing a leading role in encouraging eurosceptics to put pressure on Cameron.
David Davis, the eurosceptic former Europe minister who was Cameron's main rival in 2005, refused to follow his example and give an undertaking to pull out of the European People's Party (EPP). Davis thought that such a clear commitment would close off options.
And yet today Davis is lining up with eurosceptics to put pressure on Cameron to table tough demands at the summit. In an article on the ConservativeHome website, Davis writes:
This is an unprecedented opportunity for the government to establish a new relationship in Europe…What comes out of the EU summit ought to be new terms of membership, with less focus on a legislative union and more focus on free trade, competitiveness and prosperity. They should include an emergency brake and a variable opt out from EU legislation.
So why is the right "on manoeuvres", as one leading figure told me? The extent of the challenge was shown on Wednesday when the Northern Ireland secretary Owen Paterson, whose patron is Duncan Smith, told the Spectator that it was "inevitable" that a revision of the Lisbon treaty would require a referendum in Britain.
It all boils down a simple point. The right no longer trusts the prime minister on Europe because they feel he has fallen into what is regarded as the John Major trap. He sounds suitably eurosceptic and then ends up watering down his promises as he agrees to the compromises that mark every EU negotiation.
This tendency was identified by Tristan Garel-Jones, the former Conservative Europe. This is what Lord Garel-Jones told me in 2009:
It is now a tradition in Britain that all the major parties behave badly on Europe in opposition and they all behave fairly sensibly when they get into government. Cameron is a sensible, clever, thoughtful young man. If he becomes prime minister he will behave in a sensible, clever and thoughtful way and in the best interests of Britain.
Most eurosceptics acknowledge that Cameron has had to change tack partly under pressure from the Liberal Democrats. Nick Clegg insisted in the coalition negotiations that the Tories abandon their pledge to repatriate social and employment laws.
In a compromise the two parties agreed that a referendum would be held on future EU treaties, though only if significant UK powers were transferred to the EU. Duncan Smith started pushing at the boundaries of this on Sunday by saying a referendum should be held simply if a "major" treaty is agreed.
One member of the Cameron circle highlighted the pressure from the Lib Dems by telling me:
The question for us is which is the bigger force, Germany or the Liberal Democrats?
But eurosceptics believe there is a deeper reason to explain why the prime minister is not living up to the promise he showed during the 2005 leadership contest. They believe that his innate euroscepticism is trumped by an even greater instinct: to be a successful prime minister who walks tall in Europe.
The eurosceptics believe that, for once, Ed Miliband was right when he taunted the prime minister in the commons on Wednesday for promising more than he can deliver. Miliband highlighted Cameron's suggestion, shortly before a rebellion in October by 81 Conservative MPs on the EU, that he might use the eurozone crisis to repatriate powers.
The prime minister had one of his weaker performances at PMQs after Miliband asked:
Why does the prime minister think it is in the national interest to tell his backbenchers one thing to quell a rebellion on Europe, and to tell his European partners another thing?
Cameron thought that his move on the EPP and his track record as a eurosceptic would give him room to manage his party. But once again the EU is coming back to haunt the Tories who lost one prime minister (Margaret Thatcher) over Europe and who found a second (John Major) was hobbled over the issue.
Perhaps the prime minister's chief strategist (George Osborne) might assess whether it is wise to suggest to Tories that he can deliver far more on the EU than he will ever secure. This warning from a eurosceptic, voiced to me after the rebellion in October, stands true:
On Europe the prime minister can only keep up the tease for so long. At some point the facade crumbles.
* The legacy of Cameron's decision to pull out of the EPP was illustrated today when he did not attend its pre-summit meeting in Marseille attended by Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and Jos̩ Manuel Barroso. This gave the prime minister a chance to hold a meeting with the Tories' main allies in Europe РPoland's opposition. It appears the prime minister did not take up this opportunity.