It might be dangerous to start sounding like Glenn McGrath but the temptation when casting a first glance at Australia’s Ashes squad is overwhelming. The weather rather than the opposition could be the biggest threat to England winning 5-0 this summer.
Certainly they will never have a better chance of a thumping Ashes victory. How Australia would have loved on Wednesday to be able to name McGrath (whose supreme confidence in his side was seldom misplaced) in a 16-man party for the first of back-to-back series to contest cricket’s biggest prize.
They would also have loved to be able to turn to people of the quality of Shane Warne, Ricky Ponting, Matthew Hayden, Adam Gilchrist and Mike Hussey.
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On the front line: Michael Clarke walks ahead of former captains Mark Taylor (left) and Steve Waugh as the Australians announced their squad for the Ashes series in England this summer
On the same page: (from left) Waugh, new Aussie vice captain Brad Haddin, Clarke and Taylor
Aussie Ashes squad
Michael Clarke (captain), Brad Haddin (vice-captain), Jackson Bird, Ed Cowan, James Faulkner, Ryan Harris, Phil Hughes, Usman Khawaja, Nathan Lyon, James Pattinson, Chris Rogers, Peter Siddle, Mitchell Starc, Matthew Wade, David Warner, Shane Watson.
Click here for Nasser Hussain's assessment of Australia's Ashes squad
The sad fact is that a golden generation of Australia cricketers have all gone and in their place come what is surely the worst Australia Ashes squad in living memory.
Jackson Bird anyone? James Faulkner? Phil Hughes? Usman Khawaja? Nathan Lyon the only spinner in the party? These are not names to have the England players quaking in their boots, even if Steve Waugh, another Australia great who is long gone, did baulk in Sydney on Wednesday when the man from the BBC suggested England should win comfortably.
There are also recalls for two 35-year-olds whose Test careers looked to be over.
Snarler: Peter Siddle, pictured with Haddin, is capable of causing England the odd problem
Aussies in England - Key dates
June 26-29: v Somerset
July 2-5: v Worcs
July 10-14: 1st Test, Trent Bridge
July 18-22: 2nd Test, Lord's
July 26-28: v Sussex
August 1-5: 3rd Test, Old Trafford
August 9-13: 4th Test, Durham
August 16-17: v Northants
August 21-25: 5th Test, The Oval
However, Australia’s decision to pick Brad Haddin as vice-captain, and Chris Rogers, who played his only Test five years ago, are two of their least contentious decisions
Pragmatism rules in this squad. In Middlesex captain Rogers, Australia are plumping for a solid performer well versed in English conditions with 19,000 first-class runs to his name. Haddin has averaged 45 in his two Ashes series. He is the best choice to step in as captain should Michael Clarke’s dodgy back let him down.
That is a prospect no Australian could even contemplate. Clarke has been a colossus with the bat since taking over from Ponting. Take him away and it is difficult to see the old enemy reaching 300, let alone the totals to give their bowlers a chance.
Talking the talk: Clarke is quizzed by reporters at The Mint in Sydney as the Aussies name their weak squad
Australia announce Ashes squad
What the Aussies have been saying...
Ashes squad? They must be barking mad!
The squad was called a ‘dog’s breakfast’ by the Herald Sun, and the selection of Chris Rogers and promotion of Brad Haddin to vice-captain drew comparisons to Dad’s Army.
Far from a tip-top order without Clarke
Former captain Mark Taylor told the Western Mail he was ‘worried by the dearth of young batsmen’. The Herald Sun said their top-order batting was ‘woeful’, and would ‘border on disgraceful if you took out Clarke’.
Lyon going solo puts everybody in a spin
The selection of just one specialist spinner in Nathan Lyon was described as a ‘shock’ by The Daily Telegraph. They were equally surprised that promising Western Australian Ashton Agar did not make the cut.
Don't forget the class of ’89
Some think this squad could emulate the team of 1989, who beat England 4-0. The Age writer Greg Baum tweeted: ‘Sobering to think that this is our best squad. Still, 1989 is long enough ago to be history, and so ripe for repeating.’
Skipper’s rallying cry
Captain Clarke dismissed all the negativity surrounding his squad, saying: ‘We’ve heard that so many times before. We have the talent, the experience and the youth to go over there and have success.’
P.S. We're really going to miss Mitchell
Michael Vaughan had a dig at axed Barmy Army target Mitchell Johnson, tweeting: ‘Thousands of England fans will be in mourning today with the news Mitchell Johnson hasn’t made the Aussie Ashes squad.’
David Warner gives the ball a thump but is likely to be found out against the moving delivery while Ed Cowan is untested at the highest level. Nick Compton, meanwhile, already has as many Test centuries as Shane Watson while Hughes looks little improved from the walking wicket we saw in 2009.
There are only seven players in the squad with Ashes experience while the proliferation of left- handers will have Graeme Swann rubbing his hands in glee as long as the positive reports on his progress from elbow surgery are accurate.
The seam bowling is the straw at which Australia must clutch. If they are all firing and fit — and no Australia bowler has seemed capable of staying on his feet for long in recent times — then it is possible to see them taking 20 English wickets. And that would give them a chance of a Test victory or even two.
England got the wrong Pattinson when they infamously picked Darren to play against South Africa five years ago. His little brother James has emerged as one of the best fast-bowling prospects in the world and, as long as he remembers to do his homework, could prove a handful for England’s batsmen.
It is, of course, easy to mock the fact that Australia sent four of their players home from their shambolic tour of India for failing to fill in questionnaires for coach Mickey Arthur. And why not? Australia laughed at England for long enough when they ruled the cricket world.
Three of the ‘Homework Four’ — Pattinson, Watson and Khawaja — have been excused detention this time but a fourth in Mitchell Johnson is surprisingly left out, to the dismay of the Barmy Army who so enjoyed his performances in the last Ashes series. This is a gamble by Australia. When Johnson is bad he is really bad, as we have seen often, but when he gets it right, as he did at Perth last time, he is a formidable operator.
The chemistry in the Australia camp will be fascinating. It was all very well romanticising the mythical powers of the Baggy Green cap in Waugh’s day — I wonder if Justin Langer still sleeps with his? — but since the legends have retired, their lack of harmony has been exposed.
It's not that bad... well, actually, it is: Clarke looks serious as chairman of selectors John Inverarity speaks
Big miss: Former Aussie captain Ricky Ponting brought the curtain down on his Test career last year
3 reasons why I may end up with egg on my face...
1 - This looks like the worst Australia squad in memory. But that’s exactly what we were saying in 1989 when Allan Border brought a motley crew to these shores. And what happened? Australia won 4-0.
2 - England can be at their worst when they are expected to win. Write them off, as we all did when they went 1-0 down in India, and they invariably respond by declaring ‘We’ll show you’. And they do.
3 - Australia have a decent seam bowling line-up. If James Pattinson, Peter Siddle, Mitchell Starc and Ryan Harris all stay fit for the whole tour, then they are capable of causing damage to a sometimes flaky England batting line-up.
The rift between Clarke and Watson was laid bare in India while their South African coach Arthur took a huge risk in exerting his authority in such a spectacular way. If things go wrong early on the tour, Arthur’s leadership will come under extreme scrutiny.
In Johnson’s absence, the left-arm duties are in the hands of Mitchell Starc — who impressed when he played for Yorkshire — and Faulkner. It is worth remembering that left-arm seamers have given England problems — not least in New Zealand when Trent Boult and Neil Wagner caused worries.
They should be able to cope, despite some question marks of their own, not least over the fitness of Swann and Kevin Pietersen.
Pietersen’s absence from the Champions Trophy, confirmed on Wednesday night, is a blow that might turn out to be a blessing for England’s Ashes prospects, because it should leave their key man fresh for the first Test on July 10. Caution seems to be behind the decision.
It is consistent with everything England have done over the last year, with the intention of peaking for the Ashes in an overcrowded calendar. I just cannot see them wasting this golden opportunity for a third successive Ashes victory.
If the sun shines, and Pietersen and Swann are fit, England to win 5-0.
You've got to urn it: Andrew Strauss led England to Ashes glory in the most recent series Down Under