The PM may be seeking to drag his party to the centre ground, but voters don't seem to be buying it – and his MPs are in revolt
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Gay rights campaigner Paul Bennett, 44, of London stands outside Parliament on the day of the Commons vote on gay marriage. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images
In 2010 the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats formed their coalition with the symbolism of marriage – the famous first press conference between Nick Clegg and David Cameron in the Downing Street rose garden can be seen as the formal exchange of vows, pledging to stick together until 2015 in sickness and in health.
Fast forward to today and there is a supreme irony in the fact it is now the issue of marriage, specifically same-sex marriage, that is giving Conservative backbenchers an itch to consider divorce from their leader.
While David Cameron may well hold deeply held views in support of same-sex marriage, the politics remains simple. Supporting such a measure plays a central role in Cameron's efforts to modernise his party; an attempt to show to those areas, particularly across the north, that the party has changed. The only problem is that his northern backbenchers don't seem to agree this is the right strategy and voters are not prepared to give the PM the benefit of the doubt.
In total, 24 out of the Tories' 43 MPs in the north of England did not follow their leader into the lobbies in support of same-sex marriage. Officially it was a free vote with no party line. Unofficially however, and more significantly, it was symptomatic of the struggle taking place within the parliamentary Conservative party.
In one corner are the "modernisers", led by David Cameron, who are seeking to drag the party, kicking and screaming, onto the sacred centre ground of British politics. By providing the party with some red meat, such as the promise of a vote on Europe, the party leadership hope to have produced enough goodwill on their backbenches to give them some leverage on issues aimed at softening the party image. It is aimed also at stemming the drift that has seen Labour and the Lib Dem's cosying up together on Europe, constituency boundary changes and media regulation post-Leveson.
In the other corner however is what could fast be approaching a majority of Conservative MPs, disgruntled by their failure to win an outright majority, and keen to make a clear distinction between themselves and their coalition partners in the Lib Dems by tacking to the right. This remains a particularly prevalent view across much of the party's intake of new MPs from 2010, largely young, bright, articulate members with promising careers ahead of them.
The tussle between the two, made clear for all to see in this week's vote, will play a significant role in deciding the next election. But as can be seen in the polls, the modernisers have a battle on their hands in the north in convincing the public that they actually support the idea of modernisation rather than it being a cynical political tool to get votes.
In polling by YouGov for the Sunday Times over the weekend, just 8% of northern voters concluded that same-sex marriage will be an important issue to them in determining how they vote in 2015. In the same poll 52% of those in the north questioned agreed with the statement, that they would be "less likely to vote for a party that supports same sex marriage", this despite 55% outlining support for the principle of legalising same sex marriages. And ultimately, the most difficult number for David Cameron is that 60% of those northerners questioned concluded that his decision to support same-sex marriages will either make them think more negatively about them or has had no change on their already negative perceptions of the PM.
A further poll carried out by ComRes for the campaigning organisation Coalition for Marriage of LGBT voters found that 64% across the north believed that "David Cameron is trying to extend marriage to LGBT people to make his party look more compassionate rather than because of his convictions".
With the quest for more northern seats as difficult as it has ever been for the Tories, the same-sex marriage image has revealed a dangerous trend for the PM. Cameron may be pushing an issue that the north generally supports, but he's not being given the benefit of the doubt, with voters concluding that it's all politics and little conviction. Number 10 is in a difficult position right now, one for which there may be no prospect of recovery.