Whitehall wrong to think that a victory for socialist candidate would marginalise France in Europe
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François Hollande, pictured outside parliament in February, would not isolate France as president. Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA
There is an unmistakeable sense of glee in Whitehall as ministers and officials look at the results of the first round of the French presidential election.
Downing Street and the Treasury believe that a victory for François Hollande could present Britain with a golden opportunity to increase its influence in Europe. They predict two things could happen:
• If Hollande follows in the footsteps of his hero, François Mitterrand, and embarks on a bout of Socialism, then loads of enterprising French people will up sticks and head to the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea. London is already one of the largest French cities by population.
• If Holland carries out his threat to renegotiate the eurozone's fiscal compact, an angry Angela Merkel would embrace the British.
David Cameron and George Osborne should be careful what they wish for. Their dreams that Hollande will marginalise France will not be realised for two simple reasons:
• Hollande may well try and follow in Mitterrand's footsteps, though Sam Fleming points out in the Times that his deficit reduction plan "closely track those of the incumbent". If Hollande does follow Mitterrand he will do so in both directions. The only difference is that the Hollande retreat will take place a little earlier.
• The Franco-German alliance trumps all other relationships in the EU. Merkel would be the first foreign leader Hollande would visit as president. They would both work hard to stabilise their relationship.
Britain seems to think that Germany would like to use free trade Britain as a counterweight to a more protectionist France under Hollande. But that is always the German calculation. The other permanent calculation is that France and Germany need to act as the main political motor in the EU.
The prime minister and chancellor would do well to remember the defining image of European unity. It was Mitterrand (resistance hero) and German chancellor Helmut Kohl (drafted in the final months of the Second World War) holding hands in 1984, 70 years after the start of the First World War, at Verdun.