Prime minister flies into South Africa on Nelson Mandela's 93rd birthday at start of curtailed tour
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David Cameron flies into South Africa on Monday morning, the 93rd birthday of Nelson Mandela, pictured here celebrating last year. Photograph: Peter Morey/AP
Intense discussions were held in No 10 last week about whether David Cameron should abandon a two-day visit to South Africa and Nigeria which begins on Monday morning on Nelson Mandela's 93rd birthday.
There were fears that flying across the world at such a sensitive political moment could risk a John Major moment. The former prime minister is haunted by memories of overseas trips that were overwhelmed by events back home.
Eventually Cameron's team decided to go ahead with the trip when they clocked the advantages of being in a similar time zone to London. A convenient gap in his diary in Nigeria on Tuesday afternoon will mean that aides – and possibly the prime minister himself – will be able to follow the appearance of Rupert and James Murdoch on television.
But there was another factor that persuaded the prime minister to press ahead with the trip, although it has been shortened from four days to two. This is a new Scramble for Africa that is currently taking place across the continent.
Only last week the German chancellor Angela Merkel visited Kenya, Angola and Nigeria, accompanied by a delegation of German business leaders, with a message that she was promoting trade not aid. Cameron will follow a similar pattern. He is taking a 25-strong business delegation, which includes the Barclays chief executive Bob Diamond, and saying the purpose of his trip is to promote trade.
But this is not a rerun of the 19th century Scramble for Africa where the Great European powers, led by Britain and Germany, fought for the minerals and resources of Sub-Saharan Africa. This time the Europeans are playing catch up with the dominant force in Africa – China.
The raw economic statistics for South Africa, where Cameron will on Monday meet President Jacob Zuma, show China's dominance. Nearly a fifth (17.2%) of goods imported by South Africa came from China. Germany is in second place (11.2%) with the US in third place on 7.4%, according to figures from the CIA World Factbook which does not register the figures for Britain. China heads the lists of South African exports – 10.3%. Britain is fifth on 5.5% behind the US (9.2%), Japan (7.6%) and Germany on 7%.
And so the prime minister will follow the example of Merkel when he lands in South Africa on Monday morning with a planeload of 25 British business leaders. He will make clear that Britain is still deeply committed to providing aid to Sub-Saharan Africa. The presence of Andrew Mitchell, the international development secretary, will underline that point. Mitchell will fly into South Africa from northern Kenya where he has been leading Britain's response to the famine.
But the prime minister will say that the greatest way to lift Africa out of poverty, particularly a highly developed economy such as South Africa, is by promoting trade. Lord Green, the trade minister, is also on the trip.
The prime minister writes in South Africa's Business Day on Monday that an African free trade area could increase trade across the continent by $62bn a year – $20bn more than Sub-Saharan Africa receives in aid:
In the past, there were marches in the West to drop the debt. There were concerts to increase aid. And it was right that the world responded. But they have never once had a march or a concert to call for what will in the long term save far more lives and do far more good – an African free trade area. The key to Africa's progress is not just aid. It is time for some fresh thinking.
Cameron will have mixed emotions when he lands in South Africa on Nelson Mandela Day which is designed, in the words of the organisers, to "inspire individuals to take action to help change the world for the better". The future prime minister does not like to be reminded that he visited apartheid South Africa while Mandela was still in prison.
The prime minister atoned for the Tories' less than glorious record on apartheid in his first year as party leader when he said that Margaret Thatcher was wrong to have opposed sanctions on South Africa. Cameron broke with the Tories' record on apartheid in an Observer article in August 2006 after meeting Mandela, described by the future prime minister as "one of the greatest men alive".
On Monday Cameron will not visit Mandela who will be in the Eastern Cape for his birthday celebrations. If the prime minister had gone ahead with his original plan to visit Africa over four days, including trips to far poorer countries than South Africa and Nigeria, perhaps time might have been found for a Cape birthday greeting.